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Tue 7th Jan 2014 - Propel Tuesday News Briefing

Story of the Day:

Camra launches ‘pubs and the economy’ campaign: Camra, the Campaign for Real Ale, has launched a “pubs and the economy” campaign aiming to promote the benefits of pubs to the British economy and encourage more people to use their local during January. Thousands of promotional packs are being sent out for the campaign, including one to every pub in the 2014 Camra Good Beer Guide. The packs include posters featuring real pub staff and landlords from around the UK, and their stories. The campaign aims to raise the profile of pubs by highlighting the large numbers of jobs created by pubs and the amount of tax they pay towards the British economy. Camra’s chief executive, Mike Benner, said: “January can be a quiet time for the pub industry following a busy Christmas period, and this campaign will encourage people to use the pub in the new year and call on pub-goers to join Camra and call for a freeze in beer duty at the next budget. The pub industry employs over half a million people and the pub and beer industry adds £19bn a year to the UK economy, but the lack of trade in the month after the festive season could prove to be the nail in the coffin for struggling pubs up and down the UK, with 26 pubs a week currently closing nationwide. Alongside contacting their MP and asking for a freeze in Beer Duty, the best way people can help the pub industry is to use their local pub during January. Many of us only visit pubs over Christmas, but if we want British pubs, which are such an important part of our economy and way of life, to survive then we need to support our local all year round.” Camra is calling on the government to freeze beer duty in the 2014 Budget after the 1p cut in 2013 and scrapping of the much hated beer duty escalator, which added 2% above inflation to beer tax year-on-year.

Industry News:

First Propel Multi Club Conference of 2014 open to bookings: The first Propel Multi Club Conference of 2014, to be held on Thursday 13 March at the Lancaster Gate Hotel, London, is now open for bookings. Multi-site pub, restaurant and foodservice companies can claim up to two free places each. E-mail jo.charity@propelinfo.com to reserve places.

Regional “pockets of gold” to emerge: Regional towns and cities will emerge as “pockets of gold” this year as retailers and restaurants increase demand for key locations, according to a new report by Jones Lang LaSalle. Affluent places such as Brighton, Oxford, Colchester, Edinburgh, Bath and Winchester will see a rise in demand for leisure space in the next 12 months, the agent argued. More than a third of the UK’s top 200 retail locations have seen their rental values recover to above pre-crash levels in 2008 and these rents will continue to grow this year. Richard Brown, retail director of Jones Lang LaSalle, argued that an increase in the number of leases expiring on high streets and shopping centres this year will make the divide between successful and struggling locations more obvious. “The vibrancy of retail destinations will be improved by a wider leisure offer,” he said.
 
Tesco launches ‘Healthy Living’ brand: Tesco has launched a new brand called “Tesco Healthy Living” to appeal to health-conscious customers in the post-Christmas period. The new brand replaces its healthy food ranges “Tesco Light Choices” and “Tesco Eat Live Enjoy” and includes 230 products from bakery and ready meals to yoghurts. The new range will offer two options: “Big on Taste, Lower in Calories”, which offers products with 30% fewer calories than comparable products and is aimed at people trying to lose weight; and “Beautifully Balanced”, aimed at people wanting to make healthier choices.

80,000 dine at Chicago Eataly in first week: A total of 80,000 people dined at the new 63,000 sq ft Eataly in Chicago in the first week. More than 120,000 people passed through the doors and more than 30,000 purchased food to go. "Chicagoans are more open to innovation, they're more thoughtful, they're different than New Yorkers, they're not as obsessed about what's happening exactly right now, but they're very aware of what's happening right now," said co-owner Mario Batali. The site was so busy in its first week it had to close for a whole day “to preserve our standards of quality and service”, the website said. 

North Essex bucks pub closure trend: North Essex is bucking the national pub closure trend. The Campaign for Real Ale (Camra) Suffolk and North Essex branch lists local pub closures in its free Last Orders newsletter, and, remarkably, in recent months the number of re-openings in the area has matched closures. The data shows that although 17 publicans called time on their businesses during 2013, 19 pubs reopened for business.

Pipers Crisps voted Best Brand: For the second consecutive year, Pipers Crisps has been voted “Best Brand” in a survey of British producers. The award celebrates the most successful speciality food and drink products on sale in delicatessens, farm shops and food halls. The Lincolnshire-based crisp maker topped the Savoury Snacks section, as voted for by the retailers themselves. Pipers’ gourmet crisps are now available in around 5,000 outlets across the UK, including a large number of pubs.
 

Company News:

Marston’s launches £6.63m sale and leaseback of Pitcher & Piano outlet: The freehold of the Pitcher & Piano in Newcastle upon Tyne is on the market for offers in excess of £6.625m through the agent CBRE. The property is subject to a new 35-year lease with Marston’s as tenant paying a rent of £350,000 a year on an FRI lease, with five -yearly rent reviews where the rent will be annually compounded in line with the Retail Price Index, subject to a collar and cap of 1% and 4%. The guide price means any buyer receives a new initial yield of 5%.
 
Russell Norman – we’re looking for a site in Deptford: Polpo founder Russell Norman, offering his predictions for 2014 to Adam Hyman’s Code Bulletin, has argued that the London restaurant scene needs to expand out from Zone One location. He said: “I really hope that independent chefs and restaurateurs look beyond Zone One and seek out cool up-and-coming zone 2 locations: the demand for excellence and innovation is definitely there and the London restaurant scene desperately needs more geographical breadth. My business partner and I are looking for a large space in Deptford [south-east London], for example.”

Inventive Leisure reports 30% sales uplift at invested sites: Inventive Leisure, the premium bar operator, ended 2013 on a high, having invested £7m since July 2013 in its Revolution Bars as part of the planned £10m investment in its Evolution programme. In the final investment of 2013, the business re-opened the outlets in Milton Keynes, Reading, Hanley and Parsonage Gardens in Manchester at a total investment of £840,000. Mark McQuater, Inventive Leisure’s chief executive, said: “We ended a very exciting year for the Revolution brand following our £7m investment in its high-end transformation. We’ve already started to reap the benefits, with profits lifted at the evolved sites by around 30% and feedback from customers far surpassing all expectations. What we’ve managed to create at Revolution is an estate of luxurious, stylish, but elegant bars that have retained their individuality, with quirky unique touches. We look forward to continuing our investment in the evolution programme in 2014.”

BrewDog – we’re full steam ahead on opening London Beer Academy: The Scottish brewer and retailer BrewDog is to press ahead with opening its proposed London Beer Academy this year after raising £4.25m one month ahead of schedule. The company said on its blog: “We can't wait to get our BrewDog Beer Academy up and running; a bottle shop, home brewing supply shop, 10-barrel craft brewery with interactive brewing sessions, home brewing classes and a BrewDog bar all rolled into one. We'll be aiming to go full steam ahead with this in 2014.” The company also plans five more bars in the UK, with Sheffield, Liverpool and Cardiff all planned for the first half of the year.

Greene King sells virtual freehold in Lincoln: Greene King has sold the virtual freehold of The Shed in Brayford Marina, Lincoln through agent Everard Cole. It has been acquired by The University of Lincoln and will be operated by the Student Union. The business will reopen this Thursday for the start of the academic term and will be run on a profit share basis between the Student Union and the University of Lincoln.
 
JW Lees reports strong end to 2013: The Manchester-based family brewer and retailer JW Lees has reported a strong final six weeks of trading in 2013. Managing director William Lees-Jones told Propel: “[Our] sales line looks good, with December bang on where we'd budgeted and then a real humdinger of a New Year's Eve week, so total managed houses sales were up 17% year-on-year for the six-week period until Sunday, although there are quite a few new additions to the estate and so it's hard for me to get like-for-likes until the accounting guys have modelled it. Since there is no snow and no problems with flooding we are [also] hoping that we'll have a much better January.”
 
Plan to convert Square nightclub in Cardiff into entertainment venue: A former Cardiff nightclub is set to be transformed into a new entertainment venue. The owners of the members bar The Attic, on Mill Lane and Le Monde fish bar and grill on St Mary Street have been given permission by Cardiff council to convert 78-80 St Mary Street. The grade II-listed building was previously the Square nightclub but has been empty for several years. It originally formed part of the Philharmonic Hall before being converted into a nightclub. Mango Planning and Development is working on behalf of Birdvale Limited and plans to retain the former grandeur of the Victorian music hall and offer a place where those aged 30 and over can go for what it describes as “high-quality entertainment”. A covering letter said the applicant wished to restore the building to its “former glory” by introducing a stage at one end of the venue and restoring period features to create a “grand and unique setting”. Among the activities to be offered during the week are comedy acts, live bands, dancing, live cabaret and swing, theatre performances and daytime conferences.

Harewood Leisure nightclub on the market for £500,000: One of Teesside’s best-known nightclubs has gone on the market with a £500,000 price tag. Glam, in Stockton town centre, shut its doors in June last year after suffering a slump in trading. The High Street venue has a long history as a popular nightspot, previously known as Zanzibar and The Mall. Christie + Co is handling the sale of the property, which it describes as a re-development opportunity. The firm said the two-storey building is a “long established” nightclub property in a high-profile high street position. The 36,000 sq ft property, previously operated by the leisure firm Harewood Group, has a 2,500 capacity. Christie + Co said the club was Teesside’s largest before its closure and its income for the year ending October 2012 was £663,000. The property has a public entertainment licence to 3am.

Ping Pong boss aiming for 30 sites within five years: The dim sum restaurant chain Ping Pong, which is opening its ninth London site this month, hopes to have 30 restaurants within five years. Chief executive Art Sagiryan said he wants the chain to be as popular as YO! Sushi. “If you said 10 years ago there would be over 100 YO! Sushis, people would say you were mad. What’s to stop dim sum becoming more widely accepted?” he asked. Last year, revenues hit £14.4m, with underlying profits at £1.2m. Sagiryan said none of the private equity offers he has had are at what he feels is the chain’s true value.

Five stars for 724 Wetherspoons: A total of 724 JD Wetherspoon pubs have earned a five-star rating in the Food Standards Authority Food Hygiene Rating Scheme, which is 89% of the 817 JD Wetherspoon pubs listed on the FSA website. Another 78 of the company’s pubs gained a four-star rating, with just 15 pubs below this score. In Scotland, which runs a two-tier scheme of either “pass” or “improvement needed”, all 49 of the Wetherspoon pubs listed under the scheme were given a pass. TGI Friday remains the only sizeable UK restaurant company with a five-star rating across the estate.

Demolition of Wigan Pier nightclub begins: The demolition of the former Wigan Pier nightclub building has begun as part of a major redevelopment of the surrounding area. The site is seen by many as one of Wigan's biggest eyesores and has stood empty for more than 12 months. Wigan Council bought the building in March 2013. Councillor David Molyneux, deputy leader of Wigan Council, said: “This is one of the biggest eyesores in our town and sadly it is in one of the most high-profile places. The building is about 40 years old and I'm sure there are a lot of people who have happy and slightly hazy memories of good times at the old club. But the building is now in a rotten state. We are currently underusing and underselling the whole Wigan Pier area and want to completely transform it and restore its status as one of the most prominent places in the region. That can only really be done if we get rid of this building.”

Young’s creates VIP hospitality suites at six pubs for Six Nations: The London pub operator Young’s is creating VIP hospitality suites, complete with fully stocked fridge, Astroturf-dressed table and a dedicated waiter, at six of its pubs in time for the Six Nations rugby tournament. The pubs are: the Dial Arch, Woolwich, the Dog and Fox, Wimbledon, the Waterside, Imperial Wharf, the County Arms, Wandsworth, the Hand and Spear, Weybridge, and the Director’s Cut Cinema at Horts, Bristol. The costs of packages varies: the Dog & Fox costs £100 for the exclusive use of the mezzanine area and includes sharing boards.
 
Coal Bar and Grill Gloucester Quays one of five 2014 openings: Coal Bar and Grill is to open at Gloucester Quays in July as one of five new openings for the chain in 2014. Coal joins Portivo Lounge, Ed’s Easy Diner, Pizza Express, Nando’s, Chimichanga and Zizzi, while another major eatery is set to be announced for the Quays before Easter. John Gater, managing director of Coal Grill and Bar, said: "We are very excited. This is the perfect location for our restaurant, with an attractive waterside setting and the retail and cinema complex right next door. Gloucester Quays is a key site in our expansion plans for locations across the UK in 2014."

Simon French repeats buy call on Domino’s, Greggs and Restaurant Group: Panmure Gordon leisure analyst Simon French has reiterated a buy recommendation on three companies due to publish trading updates this week. He said: “We expect updates this week from Domino's Pizza (Wednesday), Greggs (Thursday) and Restaurant Group (Thursday). All should be good as it appears most privately owned pub and restaurant companies achieved mid to high single digit like-for-like sales growth in December, whilst footfall remained robust on UK high streets (even if spend was more selective). Our FY forecasts for the companies imply 1.2% like-for-like sales growth at Dominos in Q4, 0.3% at Greggs in Q4 and - 3.9% (against a very tough comp of circa 9%) in the last seven weeks at Restaurant Group. However, we think there is upside risk to all three of these full-year forecasts. As such we reiterate Buy recommendations on all three stocks.”
 
KFC tests personalised online ad format: KFC is thought to be the first UK restaurant company to test an online advertising format that allows it to create personalised video promotions that change according to location, the weather and shopper behaviour. The fast-food chain is using the cloud-based video platform Eyeview to incorporate a map featuring each user’s nearest KFC restaurant into a short advert. It uses behavioural data to inform the personalisation, along with advertiser data collected automatically from the restaurant locator on the company’s website. Future KFC ads could be targeted based on other variables such as the weather as well as used to promote relevant offers based on data from third-party sources. It is running the videos across the online ad sales house Specific Media’s European network of sites. The platform is able to create thousands of individual variations of the ad in real-time depending on how complex the creative is. Meghan Farren, UK marketing director at KFC, said the videos were a great step as the chain looks to drive footfall into its restaurants.
 
Punch Taverns – better trading means longer to sell non-core pubs: Punch Taverns has told shareholders it will take longer than originally thought to complete the disposal of non-core pubs because improved trading trends mean licensees are likely to stay longer. The company's non-core division accounted for 18% of Punch outlet ebitda at £43m in the financial year ended 17 August 2013 and at 18 August 2013 was made up of 1,106 pubs after the transfer of 116 pubs from the non-core to the core division at the start of the new financial year. The company said: “These pubs are predominantly small, wet-led and have a much lower profit per pub (at circa £29,000) than core pubs. As previously announced, given the limited scope for investment, these pubs are more likely to be impacted by the long-term decline in drinking out and as a result are expected in time to generate more value through disposal than retention. Following improved trading trends in the non-core division (with average profit per pub being down just 5% on the previous year), the company expects it to take longer on average before non-core pubs become vacant and are therefore in a position to be sold. Accordingly, whilst the company has not materially altered its view in relation to the total proceeds to be received from the non-core disposal programme, it now expects the disposal programme to take longer and for the profile of anticipated disposal proceeds to change from the profile previously announced.”
 
Belhaven launches new branding: Belhaven, the Scottish brewery owned by Greene King, has launched a re-brand. Gordon Muir, marketing manager at Belhaven, said: “We are Scotland’s oldest brewery. We needed our rebrand to reflect this. Yet the rise of craft beer is an opportunity for breweries like us – who have been in business since 1719 – to reach a new, younger drinker. So it was essential that this brand had a contemporary feel, and avoided the easy clichés of Scottishness. The key insight was to introduce the brewery’s iconic maltings chimneys into the label design. That was the touch of genius that sparked the process to life. It creates a distinctive, crest-shaped image that we can use across the range.”
 
Fuller’s to build flood defence wall at Henley pub: London-based brewer and pub owner Fuller’s is to build a flood defence wall at the Flowing Spring near Playhatch, Henley after the pub was hit by another flood. Nick Willson, who runs the pub with his partner Hazel Lucas, woke up on Christmas Day to find 3ft of water had flooded the car park for the second year running. He said: “We thought, ‘Here we go again’. The stream around the car park was quite high on Christmas Eve, so we moved all the garden furniture, but we were shocked by how quickly the water came up. The pub looks so uninviting, even though we are open.” Of the flood wall, Willson said: “It is great that Fuller’s are going to do this and hopefully it will solve the problem once and for all. Every week that the car park is flooded they don’t charge us rent, so last year we reckon they probably lost £15,000 in lost rent and beer sales and we lost about £20,000.”

Zetter Group to open second townhouse: The Zetter Group is to open a second town house hotel in September, with the launch of a 24-bedroom property in Seymour Street, Marylebone, London. The new hotel will join the company’s two existing properties, the 59-bedroom Zetter hotel, which opened in 2004 and encompasses Bistrot Bruno Loubet, and the nearby 13-bedroom Zetter Townhouse hotel, which was launched three years ago. The Zetter Group is owned by Mark Sainsbury and Michael Benyon.

Sparth Country House Hotel sold: Sparth Country House Hotel, a Grade II Listed property situated in the Ribble Valley, Lancashire, which is thought to date back to 1740, has been sold by agent Christie + Co off an asking price of £850,000. The hotel, originally built as a private residence, has 16 letting bedrooms, has planning consent for an additional 13 bedrooms. It was sold to experienced regional hotelier Nigel Gray, who is looking to grow and develop the business. Martin Davis, of Christie + Co's Manchester office, said: “The sale of Sparth House just goes to show that there is demand for realistically priced, good quality going-concern hotel businesses. Applicants are now returning to the market and are telling us that they are anticipating growth in the hotel sector in 2014, as hotel assets can once more give them a better return on their investment than the banks can provide.”

De Savarys to expand their two UK hotels: Entrepreneur Peter de Savary and his wife Lana are to expand the two hotels they own. The eight-bedroom Cary Arms hotel overlooking Babbacombe Bay, Devon, will see the addition of six beach-hut bedrooms alongside a new spa with two treatment rooms and a plunge pool. The bedrooms, due to be completed by mid-summer, will have an English seaside design. In addition, the 60-bedroom Old Swan & Minster Mill near Witney in Oxfordshire is to add six new suites on the site of an original grist mill spanning across the River Windrush. The couple have also acquired Swan Cottage, an 1850s property adjacent to the 65 acres of grounds, which will be restored to create a two-bedroom, self-contained property with kitchen, garden and BBQ area.

Douglas Jack – we expect positive festive trading: Numis Securities leisure analyst Douglas Jack has forecast that the forthcoming trading update season will be positive, aided by good trading over December. He said: “Although storms, floods and power cuts will have affected some companies, the message from some private operators is that trading has been good, aided by strong Christmas bookings and Christmas/New Year’s Day falling on a Wednesday. Easy comps due to snow in the second and third weeks of January 2013 should slightly benefit companies making Q1/2/3 updates (Spirit on 14 Jan; Marston’s on 21 Jan; JD Wetherspoon on 22 Jan; and both Fuller’s and Mitchells & Butlers on 30 Jan) over those making full-year trading updates (Domino’s Pizza on 8 Jan; and The Restaurant Group on 9 Jan). Snow also provides easy comps for March: in fact, January (-2.4%) and March (-3.0%) were the Peach Tracker’s only negative months in Jan-Nov 2013. Promotional activity is no higher than usual this January. The duration of JD Wetherspoon's January sale is one week shorter this year. However, Mitchells & Butlers is being more aggressive with Harvester offering 20% off food and drink bills over £25; Crown Carveries offering two pub meals with unlimited side servings for £6.50; Toby Carvery offering 20% off food; and Sizzling offering 25% off food. Operators should trade ahead in Q1 in our view, during a favourable period when wholesale food price inflation (2.6%), rents (<2%), wage inflation (2-3%) and customer mortgage costs are subdued. The pubs need to trade ahead in Q1, prior to tough weather comps in June-July; whereas comps should remain easy for restaurants and Domino’s Pizza, which is also likely to be the biggest winner from the Fifa World Cup. Our key picks for 2014 are: Domino’s Pizza (Buy; TP 710p) due to growth and cashflow; Mitchells & Butlers (Buy; TP 500p) due to potential growth, valuation and pension deficit reduction; and Spirit Pub Company (BUY; TP 100p) due to growth and valuation.
 
Orchid reports sales up 9.8% over Christmas: Like-for-like sales at Orchid Group grew 9.8% over the Christmas and new year period, with food sales up 11% across the business. Simon Dodd, the company’s commercial and people director, said: “Across the company we had a record-breaking Christmas with very strong sales. There was a definite upturn in consumer confidence this year, with Christmas bookings up over 6% on last year. For us, it was all about getting in early. Festive planning started in earnest in July with dedicated manager road-shows, training sessions and sales ambassadors’ workshops. We offered customers early booking incentives and as a result they were up by 10%. To excite managers, we ran a Christmas sales incentive offering the best performing 20 a trip to Miami. Well-defined concepts selling quality food plus passionate, loyal managers and team members who always go the extra mile set Orchid apart from the rest.” Orchid’s digital communications played a significant part, with targeted mailings sent out to over 1 million customers. The big winners for Orchid this year were its 25 Pizza Kitchen Bars, up by 21% on last year. Dodd said: “PKB is our genre-busting concept. It’s informal, friendly and great for all ages, so perfect for Christmas celebrations – whether work do’s or family parties.” Top performing individual pubs included the Alexandra in Harrogate, a Pizza Kitchen Bar with Christmas Week sales of £43,700. The Mons in Bootle, one of Orchid’s Carvery pubs, was close behind, posting a record-breaking £43,300 for the same period. However, the accolade for Orchid’s highest ever week of sales went to the Moby Dick in Romford (Carvery), which took £50,100 in the run-up to Christmas (week of the 8th-14th Dec), smashing previous company records. Across the festive period, Orchid’s 47 Carveries saw a 15% increase in festive sales from last year. Some 350,000 diners were served during December, with 3,600 turkeys consumed. This comes on the back of a strong year for Orchid carveries, which is currently growing by 7% on a like-for-like basis. Elsewhere in the business, Do Drop Inns saw sales growth of 7%, Independent Locals were up by 7%, Free House Dining up 3% and Dragons up 5.5%. Invested pubs showed their worth, with recently refurbished pubs seeing like-for-like sales growth of 30.5% in week 52. Overall, Orchid’s invested estate is up by over 38%.

Whiting & Hammond sees strong like-for-likes in December despite ‘biblical’ challenges: The South East gastro-operator Whiting & Hammond, led by Brian Whiting, has reported very strong December trading despite “biblical challenges”. The company pushed some bookings into the back-end of November, which meant the week starting 28 November saw like-for-likes grow 7%. Whiting told Propel: “Our events team were right on top of Christmas, getting menus out early. We had a cracking Christmas last year, so to be honest, we weren’t expecting any big like-for-likes, so the first three weeks came as a nice surprise. The first week of December was up 8% like-for-like, the week starting 9 December was up 10% and the week commencing 16 December was up 12%. Then the weather, power cuts and floods hit the Kent and Sussex areas in a ‘biblical’ style. We had flooding at the Old Dunnings Mill in East Grinstead, but the crew managed to keep the pub afloat. The Little Brown Jug was very hard to get to with, all but one road to the pub flooded for days. Customers coming from our main catchment areas would have to have taken a very long detour, so found it easier to cancel. We had a complete disaster at the Cricketers Inn, Meopham losing power the day before Christmas Eve at 9pm during a very busy service. Power was returned late evening on Boxing Day. So not only did we lose Christmas Eve and Boxing Day but we had the task of telling 158 people booked for Christmas Day that we couldn’t open. Paul Giles, the manager of the Cricketers Inn, Laura Parnell, the head chef, and the crew would not be defeated. They got permission to use the local church hall (which still had power) and cooked for all customers who couldn’t make alternative arrangements plus all the locals who didn’t have power – over 120 people – a free Christmas lunch, which I think has gone down in folklore in Meopham village. Lots of letters of appreciation are on sitting on my desk. The week starting 23 December ended down 5%, which we have to be pleased with, considering the circumstances. We worked hard on New Year and were very happy, with the final week commencing 28 December up 7% despite no let-up in the weather. We are looking at Christmas trading as a great success for 2013 overall. We had some good targets to beat, which we achieved, but the icing on the cake is that we have had the best ever feedback from our customers. Plus Stanmer House, which came into its own deserves a special mention: it was the star of the show, with like-for-likes up 27% on last year.”

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