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Mon 12th Oct 2020 - Propel Monday News Briefing

Story of the Day: 

Mitchells & Butlers – average order value for delivery up more than 10%: Mitchells & Butlers (M&B) has seen the average order value through its delivery business increase by more than 10% since the impact of covid-19 on the business. Speaking at the Propel Virtual Multi-Club event, Susan Martindale, group HR director at M&B, said that since the impact of covid-19, the company’s delivery and takeaway sales have more than doubled, and “continue to grow at pace”. Martindale said: “Delivery and collection presented an opportunity to attract new customers, raise brand awareness and drive sales and profit in this growing market. It was also an opportunity, especially since reopening on 4 July, to maximise volumes and increase peak time covers in businesses already trading at full capacity, for the dine-in occasion, with minimal additional overheads. It has also created an ideal test environment for new concepts. From developing a suite of virtual brands to attract customers with different need states – for example, Halo Kitchen through All Bar One, which was launched earlier this year – to on-boarding a range of brands for our unbranded estates, including Castle and Oaktree.” Martindale said the company now had 18 brands and formats on its delivery platform, and “there is more to come”. She said: “We have just launched a new pilot brand through our high street estate with Deliveroo and the numbers after just two days are very encouraging. Not all our virtual brands have worked, but most of them have, and we are using them to define food propositions, with the insight of our partners, to see what will really resonate with the market and how we can target new demographics with our brands. It has definitely attracted new customers and raised brand awareness. We are also continually refining our range and pricing to create streamlined menus; [to see] what is going to work on the delivery platform compared to in our pubs and restaurants. For example, six months ago, the entire Harvester menu was on Just Eat and we streamlined it by between 33% and 40% and that has made a tremendous difference to both the offer we are delivering to the guest but also for operational engagement.” Martindale also said that click and collect had become a “hugely important channel for us in those rural locations where we haven’t got a delivery platform”. She said: “In terms of click and collect, we see this as a real opportunity, we currently only have 400 businesses (out of circa 1,600) offering click and collect. But there is a very dynamic roll-out plan in place. Operators are now shouting at me ‘how can we go quicker and faster?’ with delivery and click and collect. What we are working is on other opportunities, [such as] what are the other time slot opportunities? Breakfast is a big one. We have a big breakfast market in Toby, Harvester, Stonehouse, All Bar One and Browns, so how can we drive that opportunity forward. That is a very live debate at the moment in the business and we have just started a trial of breakfast delivery in a couple of our brands with Just Eat. We also launched call and collect across Vintage Inns and Premium Country Inns in the past week until we can roll out click and collect.” Martindale confirmed the business was also looking at dark kitchens earlier this year, but this was put on the backburner after lock-down restrictions came in. She said: “We recently resurrected that, so dark kitchens are on M&B’s horizon.”

Industry News: 

Last chance to book today for Propel and Bums on Seats online live workshop and webinar to drive and deliver Christmas party bookings: Today (Monday, 12 October) is the last chance to book for Propel and Bums on Seats’ innovative two-hour online workshop and webinar to help operators and venue managers to think “out of the box” to deliver a safe and successful Christmas. The “A mini miracle – Christmas out of the box” event will take place on Wednesday (14 October), from 2pm to 4pm. Amber Staynings, chief executive of Bums on Seats, will be delivering this fast-paced intuitive workshop and webinar that focuses specifically on driving and delivering Christmas party bookings for 2020 in a covid-19 world. She will examine the challenges of selling Christmas party bookings in a socially distant way and will work through strong, fast and effective alternatives for reaching existing and new customers to secure bookings. Staynings will look at delivering an exceptional guest experience for Christmas party bookings, maximising venue space and time available, and increasing customer satisfaction and spend per head – all while adhering to covid-secure guidance in hospitality. There will also be a live question and answer session. Staynings said: “Owners of restaurants, bars, pubs and hotels are in a fight for survival against stiff competition and changes in customer expectations and behaviours. The old ways of doing things no longer work. Businesses need to think – and act – differently.” Tickets are £99 plus VAT for Propel Premium members, £149 plus VAT for operators and £199 plus VAT for suppliers. To book, email anne.steele@propelinfo.com
Bums on Seats is a Propel BeatTheVirus campaign member
 
Sector bosses say new support ‘does not go far enough’: Sector bosses have said the new support unveiled by the government to help businesses affected by local lock-downs “does not go far enough”. Businesses forced to shut again will see two thirds of workers’ wages subsidised by government while cash grants are also being increased, with up to £3,000 per month available, linked to a property’s rateable value. Nick Mackenzie, chief executive of brewer and retailer Greene King, said: “The latest support measures provide a lifeline to pubs forced to close but doesn’t go far enough when we’re facing devastating restrictions in an increasing number of areas. The 10pm curfew and even tougher measures in Scotland, where pubs can only trade until 6pm and can’t serve alcohol, are making it increasingly unviable for pubs to trade and threatening more closures. The winter is set to be an incredibly difficult time for the industry and the sector needs help to take a longer-term view.” Last week, Greene King announced it would shut 79 sites, with about 25 of those set to be permanent while it has started consulting with 800 employees about a redundancy process. Patrick Dardis, chief executive of London pub operator Young’s, added: “Since reopening, we have had 2.7 million people through our doors, but just nine confirmed covid cases. That’s an infection rate of just 0.00000328%. Serious questions must be raised over the effectiveness local hospitality lock-downs will have in stopping the spread of the virus, as well as the 10pm curfew, which is pushing people into the streets or into unsecure venues. The government must use evidence-based, proportionate measures to tackle the virus instead and commit to reviewing the measures on a regular basis and remove them if they don’t stop the spread of the virus.” British Beer & Pub Association chief executive Emma McClarkin said: “The enhanced Job Support Scheme announced will help save some jobs in areas facing local lock-downs. The fact remains, though, for other pubs across the UK struggling with the 10pm curfew and rule of six – which is decimating their sales – the standard Job Support Scheme is no way near adequate.” Night Time Industries Association chief executive Michael Kill added: “The introduction of the £3,000 monthly grant for businesses under local lock-down is insufficient and, for many, too little too late. This is in no way reflective of the costs that are being incurred by businesses in our sector and will do nothing to alleviate the significant financial burdens they are under.” Sacha Lord, night-time adviser for Greater Manchester and co-founder of Parklife and The Warehouse Project – who is also a board member of the NTIA – said: “These same operators were told by the prime minister only last month to take employees off furlough and to ‘get back to work’. It’s a kick in the teeth but, at this point, not unexpected.”
 
Decision set to lead to sector closure in northern England based on data from just 165 venues: A decision set to lead to the closure of pubs, bars and restaurants across the north of England has been based on data from just 165 hospitality venues, a minister has admitted. The government is facing a backlash over the potential closures of the hospitality sector as part of new measures aimed to combat the surge in coronavirus cases amid concerns it is spiralling out of control. But in a briefing by government health officials to a cross-party group of MPs representing the north and Midlands, it emerged claims that pubs and restaurants were responsible for 29.8% of exposures to covid-19 were based on data from 98 pubs and 67 cafes and restaurants. Speaking on LBC on Friday (9 October), business minister Nadhim Zahawi defended the move, saying the number was “pretty robust sampling”. The minister was asked by presenter Nick Ferrari: “So you are prepared to close down a multimillion-pound industry and put millions of jobs at risk, on data from 98 pubs. Seriously? A school project would do better than that minister.” Ferrari also pointed out there were 47,600 pubs in the UK, but Zahawi defended the move, saying: “I used to work in the survey industry Nick and I can tell you when you do business surveys, 98 or 100 businesses actually is quite a representative sample. If you’re doing public opinion, a thousand interviews is a representative sample. I don’t want to get into a debate about representation but that’s actually pretty robust sampling.” The government’s move has also come under fire from MPs, who have reportedly dubbed the cabinet office document a “dodgy dossier”.
 
Licensed premises down 25,000 on March levels as openings stall: Britain now has almost 25,000 fewer licensed premises open than before the covid-19 lock-down, the latest Market Recovery Monitor from CGA and AlixPartners has revealed. The report shows the scale of the pandemic’s impact on the country’s on-trade and also highlights its vulnerability ahead of major new restrictions on trading in Scotland from Friday (9 October) – where 8,000 licensed premises are subject to closures and severe new limits on trading. Similar measures are expected to be announced by the government for many areas of northern England. One area expected to fall under these new restrictions, the north east, is the UK region with the highest percentage of pubs, bars and restaurants trading again, according to the report. The region is nearest to pre-pandemic capacity with 83.8% of sites now reopened. The Monitor showed just over 90,000 premises around Britain were trading by the end of September – a net increase of almost 4,000 sites in a month. But the figure is sharply down on the 15,500 sites that opened during August, when rising consumer spending and the popularity of the government’s Eat Out To Help Out scheme incentivised many operators to return. Openings slowed in September after business and consumer confidence was dented by new trading restrictions. The current trading total compares with about 115,000 licensed premises recorded by CGA in March. The Monitor showed pubs have been much quicker to reopen than restaurants, and more than nine in ten are now back trading. But with ongoing measures including distancing and curfew requirements making conditions much tougher for late-night operators, fewer than three quarters (73.2%) of all known bars and barely half (56.2%) of nightclubs are trading. The sports and social club sector (63%) has also been severely affected by limits on socialising. In the restaurant sector, almost nine in ten (87.3%) casual dining venues are now open. But with many leading brands announcing company voluntary arrangements or closure programmes, there are now 1,200 fewer sites than there were in March. The report also emphasises significant challenges to independent operators and the London market. Fewer than three quarters (73.3%) of independent businesses have returned, compared with nine in ten (91.7%) managed sites, and there are now 21,000 fewer independents trading than before the pandemic hit in March. In London, three quarters (75.6%) of all sites are open, well down on other major cities including Manchester (83.6%), Liverpool (85.6%) and Edinburgh (82.3%).
 
People less likely to visit pubs and restaurants in recent weeks, ONS says: The proportion of adults leaving home to dine or drink out has fallen in recent weeks as local restrictions and fears for the winter continue, figures have revealed. A quarter of adults said they had eaten or drank in a restaurant, pub or bar during the previous week when polled by the Office for National Statistics between 30 September and 4 October. Three weeks earlier, 30% of respondents said they had done so in the past seven days. Just under half (43%) of adults reported meeting with others less often, when asked about changes to socialising outside their household. The ONS analysed responses from 1,573 adults about their feelings and activity during the past week in its Opinions and Lifestyle Survey examining the social impact of coronavirus. Overall, 27% of adults said they had not socialised with anyone outside their household in the past seven days, compared with 25% the previous week.
 
Four more French cities close bars and restaurants: Bars and restaurants closed in Lyon, Lille, Grenoble and Saint-Étienne on Saturday (10 October) as the four French cities go on maximum coronavirus alert. They join Paris, Marseille and the overseas territory of Guadeloupe, which were recently put on maximum alert. In the daily briefing on Thursday (8 October), health minister Olivier Véran added the situation in Toulouse and Montpellier was “worrying” and those cities could also be moved to the maximum covid-19 alert level. “The health situation in France, alas, is continuing to worsen,” he said. “Every day in France, more and more people are being infected, more and more are falling ill, and more and more are suffering serious effects that require hospitalisation.” Meanwhile, Jean-François Delfraissy, head of France’s Scientific Council, said local lock-downs could no longer be ruled out and the French would have to live with the virus until next summer. France has reported daily infection cases are topping 18,000, while more than 1,400 patients are in intensive care.
 
First sector curfew begins in Berlin for 70 years: Berlin bars and restaurants began their first curfew in 70 years on Saturday (10 October) when authorities ordered them to close at 11pm. In a bid to contain rising coronavirus cases, Germany’s government has ordered all bars, restaurants and off-licences to close between 11pm and 6am. While bars were closed during the initial covid-19 outbreak, they were reopened in July, and there has not been a curfew, as such, since 1949 in Berlin. Public gatherings of more than five people from more than two households and private gatherings of more than ten people have also been outlawed. Many in the city have said the curfew will lead to home drinking in groups, which is claimed to be more dangerous. Meanwhile, Berlin newspaper Tagesspiegel said: “There is a reason why numbers are rising in Berlin’s inner city. The rules are being massively violated, especially after dark in bars, pubs and parks. The almost unanimous consensus behind the hard lock-down in the spring has made way for laissez-faire, a situation in which everyone makes their rules in whatever way they want to.”
 
PCA publishes two new factsheets for tenants affected by the pubs code: The pubs code adjudicator (PCA) has published two new factsheets in relation to answering tenants’ questions on the pubs code processes. The factsheets concern trigger events and business development managers (BDMs) and code compliance officers (CCOs). A trigger event gives a tied tenant the right to ask their pub company for a rent assessment or MRO offer. The new factsheet sets out the conditions that must be satisfied under the pubs code to show that an event, which has a significant impact on trade is a “trigger event”, and explains the steps tenants should take if they believe there has been a trigger event and wish to pursue their rights. The factsheet on BDMS and CCOs defines their roles and responsibilities – specifically in the obligations on BDMs to act fairly and lawfully in their dealings with tenants; to take and share notes of all discussions with tenants in connection with rent, repairs and business plans; and that CCOs must be available to deal with tenant queries about the code.
 
Licensing update: Licensing solicitor John Gaunt & Partners has produced a useful monthly summary of licensing news relating to the covid-19 situation, and this can be accessed here.
John Gaunt & Partners is a Propel BeatTheVirus campaign member
 

Company News:

Papa John’s investigates alleged Eat Out To Help Out fraud by franchisee: Papa John’s is investigating allegations taxpayer cash was fraudulently claimed during the Eat Out To Help Out scheme. Franchisee Raheel Choudhary claimed more than £250,000 in non-existent meals during the scheme, the Daily Mail has alleged. Choudhary has denied all the allegations. Papa John’s said it was investigating the allegations “thoroughly”. A spokesman told the BBC: “All of Papa John’s UK stores are run by franchisees and we made it very clear to all franchisees we felt it unlikely they would be eligible to participate in Eat Out To Help Out.” The Mail said it conducted its investigation with the help of several whistleblowers who worked for Choudhary’s stores. The Mail claimed Choudhary instructed staff to process thousands of fake meals under the scheme across 57 of the 61 branches he owns, resulting in hundreds of thousands of pounds being wrongly claimed. It added Choudhary had instructed his staff to record payments made by “phantom covers” as voucher payments. A representative for Choudhary disputed the value of the claims made under the Eat Out To Help Out scheme, stating it was £185,015 and not the alleged £250,000. Choudhary said: “Of my 61 franchises, 40 have seating capacity, and we implemented the Eat Out To Help Out Scheme in all of those 40 stores from Monday to Wednesday throughout August. All customers who benefited from the scheme ate in store and we are confident we were fully compliant with the criteria set by the government.” Franchisees are bound by agreements that require them to follow all guidelines issued by Papa John’s GB, as well as abiding by and meeting ethical standards and regulatory obligations. It is also understood the digital tills software, which is frequently remotely updated by the head office, has never included an Eat Out To Help Out scheme voucher button.
 
Greene King extends rent concessions for tied tenants until Christmas: Brewer and retailer Greene King has announced its tied pub tenants will receive at least a 40% rent reduction up until Christmas, with sites closed under government measures receiving a 90% discount. It brings its estimated financial support for its 975 tied tenants to more than £25m since the covid-19 pandemic closed the UK’s pubs. The new support announced by Greene King Pub Partners is backdated to 27 September and is tiered as follows – from 27 September to 24 October, tied partners will receive a rent credit of 50%; from 25 October to 21 November tied partners will receive a rent credit of 45%; and from 22 November to 26 December tied partners will receive a rent credit of 40%. An existing discount on barrels purchased from Greene King will now run until 27 March 2021, with tied tenants receiving a trade credit of £35 per barrel. Additionally, any pubs that have to close under a government lock-down will receive a 90% rent discount while they are closed, for up to four weeks. This includes all sites in Scotland, which are prohibited from selling alcohol indoors for the next fortnight. If pubs are still closed after four weeks, this will be reviewed and balanced against any additional financial support announced by the government. Once this next wave of support is coming to an end, there will be a review of whether additional support is required into 2021. Greene King Pub Partners managing director Wayne Shurvinton said: “Even pubs in areas with lesser restrictions are seeing their trade greatly impacted by the 10pm curfew and the worry is this will only worsen throughout the winter. This additional rent support for our tenants shows our commitment to supporting UK pubs as we all try to weather this storm together.” Meanwhile, Greene King’s commitment to promoting social mobility across its 38,000 employees has been recognised at the UK Social Mobility Awards, with the company handed the Leadership of the Year prize.
 
Douglas Jack – clearance of joint brewery venture will increase Marston’s net asset value and push down debt: Peel Hunt leisure analyst Douglas Jack has argued Marston’s will see an increase in its net asset value and push its debt down after the Competition and Markets Authority approved the joint brewing venture with Carlsberg. Issuing a ‘Buy’ note on Marston’s shares with a target price of 95p, Jack said: “The brewery transaction – resulting in Marston’s owning 40% of the joint venture – is taking place at a multiple of 13 times EV/Ebitda, and at circa £380m above book value. Without any associated tax liabilities, this brings a £239m reduction in net debt (less any fees) and a 60p increase in net asset value per share. Net debt/Ebitda should fall by one times, to circa five times under normal trading conditions, in comparison to which 89% of the pub estate is freehold. Marston’s will update on FY20 trading on 21 October. In our view, its estate is positioned to outperform the sector. We estimate sector like-for-like sales are down 16% since 4 July, with pub restaurants at minus 7% and wet-led pubs (excluding bars) at minus 18%, with food-led sites benefiting more from the VAT cut. Marston’s estate has a high orientation to community locations and only a little exposure to central London. The estate is well balanced (circa 65% of managed sites are food-led, and a similar share of non-managed are wet-led), but the key to its outperformance is its location and ability to adapt. Marston’s should, therefore, have traded profitably since 4 July, resulting in the company paying down debt, in addition to the windfall expected at the end of this month (from the brewery deal). Over the long term, we expect this debt reduction to transfer into equity value. Our 95p per share target price equates to nine times 2022E EV/Ebitda versus a ten-year historic average of 9.7 times.”
 
Drayton Manor owed more than £20m before £15m sale: The company behind Staffordshire theme park Drayton Manor owed more than £20m to creditors before it fell into administration and was then acquired for £15m, new documents have revealed. Mike Denny and Peter Dickens, of PwC, were appointed as joint administrators in August and the business was subsequently sold to Looping Group, which owns 15 parks in Europe, including West Midlands Safari Park and Pleasurewood Hills in the UK. The transaction includes all of the business and assets of the group, with 599 employees transferring across to the new business. According to the administrators’ progress report, secured creditor NatWest was owed £18.7m, which the administrators said would only be 71% to 75% repaid. Lombard NC, which was also owed £400,000, is expected to make a recovery. Unsecured creditors were owed more than £2.4m. Drayton Manor had been operated by the Bryan family since it was established in 1950.
 
Vue appoints advisers as it looks to shore up balance sheet: Cinema operator Vue has appointed Deloitte to work on options to shore up its balance sheet. Vue, which is run by Tim Richards, operates about 90 cinemas in the UK, employing roughly 9,000 staff in 10 countries across Europe. Its debts were refinanced in June last year, and none of its borrowings are due to be repaid until 2025, reports Sky News. Vue had been in the process of exploring its options, including a sale, prior to the pandemic, but this has now been put on hold. It is majority-owned by ‎two Canadian funds – the Alberta Investment Management Corporation and Omers, an Ontario-based pension fund manager.
 
Tim Hortons plans to open a site in ‘every major city and town’ in UK as sales soar: Canadian café and bake shop Tim Hortons has said it wants to open an outlet in “every major city and town” in the UK as it announced a 37% leap in year-on-year sales in the UK and Ireland. As reported, the business has announced plans to open a drive-thru in Milton Keynes as it moves south in England. Tim Hortons UK & Ireland chief commercial officer Kevin Hydes said: “Despite challenging times for the sector, our drive-thru and flagship locations have delivered exceptional performance and our model is proving to be well attuned to the evolving needs of customers at this time.” The business believes if it reaches its full potential, more than 2,000 jobs will be created by 2022. Tim Hortons is owned by fast food giant Restaurant Brands International (RBI), which also owns Burger King and Popeye’s Chicken. Collectively, the company has more than 27,000 restaurants across the world, which it operates through a franchise model. It has been pushing to expand, especially outside the US and Canada. RBI chief executive Jose CIl said: “We cannot predict exactly when the dust will settle, but we’re confident that we will be well positioned to capitalise on opportunities for growth as we emerge from the crisis and continue toward the 40,000-restaurant goal we talked about last year.” Sales at RBI dropped more than 20% in the three months to July during lock-down. At Tim Hortons, which has more than 4,900 locations globally, sales fell more than 30%. Tim Hortons opened its first site in the UK in 2017 and now has 23 locations.
 
Cineworld staff retained on zero-hours contracts ‘unable to claim redundancy’: Staff at Cineworld have claimed being retained on zero-hours contracts is preventing them from taking redundancy. The closure of Cineworld sites means there are no shifts available yet mothballing employees means they can’t take possible redundancy payouts, reports The Guardian. One employee said: “People want the option to take redundancy but that doesn’t seem to be what the company wants to do. It feels like they’re holding us hostage.” In an email to its zero-hours contractors, Cineworld chief executive Mooky Greidinger said he hoped its theatres, which closed temporarily on Thursday (8 October), would be shut for the short term only and the company would be “able to offer you new shifts again”. One cinema manager said: “Cineworld plans to keep them on, which means they don’t have to give them any holiday or redundancy pay,” explained one cinema manager. Most of Cineworld’s 5,500 staff working at its 127 UK sites are on zero-hours contracts.
 
The Italians bistro and wine bar targets November opening: The team behind Chiswick pizzeria and deli, The Italians, is gearing up for an opening in Marylebone in November. This version will be a bistro and wine bar in Devonshire Street, reports Hot Dinners. An all-Italian wine list leads the way with fresh focaccia baked in-store daily. Customers can expect more Italian specialities including cheeses and cured meats. Early signs suggest some products will be available to take away, including the seasonally changing wine. 

Ollie Dabbous finds permanent home for Hideaway cafe: Michelin-starred chef Ollie Dabbous will open a permanent location for his Hideaway concept in November. Hideaway, a cafe that was born from his restaurant Hide, has enjoyed residencies at Burlington Arcade and Chelsea Barracks but will now settle on Mount Street in Mayfair. The site, which was previously occupied by Mount Street Deli, will be open all day serving coffees and pastries in the morning, and dishes such as oysters and champagne, lobster rolls and salads later in the day, thanks to current Hide sous chef Andrew Alu. Wines will be from Hide’s partner at Hedonism Wines and customers can also pick up jams, chutneys and pickles to take away.
 
Home comforts delivery service to launch from Snackbar in Dalston: Snackbar, the Dalston-based cafe founded by Freddie Janssen and Anais Van Manen, will launch a lunchtime delivery service targeting those working at home. The service begins on Wednesday (14 October), and is a reworked version of the delivery service used during lock-down. According to Hot Dinners, Snackbar at Home will offer items such as The Snacky Meal: a SnackMuffin filled with house-made pork sausage, a fried egg and American cheese with a dill pickle hash brown and freshly made lemonade; a baguette loaded with coronation chicken salad and pickles with poppadoms; and Vegan Sloppy Joe: a sesame bun with pickled shiitake mushrooms and freshly made mushroom crisps on the side. Bread will come from Spence Bakery in Stoke Newington and cheese from Neal’s Yard plus ice cream sandwiches from Happy Endings. Cocktails will use Empirical Spirits and Snackbar will also deliver its own soft drinks and wines. Snackbar at Home will operate Wednesday to Sunday between noon and 3pm and will deliver within a two-mile radius of its east London base. The business unveiled its 30-cover cafe in August 2019 after raising £20,000 funding on crowdfunding platform Kickstarter. Snackbar first set up shop in 2016 and has held residencies at Borough Market, The Laughing Heart and Legs.

Burger giants team up to launch Patty Shack DIY kit: Patty & Bun and Shake Shack have teamed up to launch a DIY at-home burger kit. The better burger brands both have make-at-home offers already but have joined forces to make the Patty Shack DIY kit. The boxed delivery contains Patty & Bun’s signature beef blend in four Shake Shack “Smashed” style patties; Shake Shack’s classic potato buns, Patty & Bun’s pickled cucumbers; American cheese; and Shake Shack’s caramelised onions, smoked cheddar mayo, ketchup and American yellow mustard, reports Hot Dinners. Patty & Bun’s Joe Grossman said that Shake Shack was “one of my original points of inspiration” and that collaborating with the Danny Meyer-led brand “to create something very, very special that highlights and reflects the style and flavours of both brands is super exciting”. The Patty Shack is available from Monday (12 October) for two weeks only.

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