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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 12th Nov 2025 - Update: Fuller’s H1 like-for-like sales up 4.6%, Stonegate CEO’s government asks, VAT cut call, Costa bid
Fuller’s managed like-for-like sales up 4.6%: Fuller’s has this morning reported a 4.6% increase in like-for-like sales across its Managed Pubs & Hotels in the six months to 27 September 2025, with total revenue up 7% to £207.5m (H1 2025: £194.1m). It said that adjusted pre-tax profit for the period increased by 28% to £22.5m (H1 2025: £17.6m), while statutory pre-tax profit stood at £21.1m (H1 2025: £29m), with the prior period reflected book profit of £17.2 million arising from the disposal of The Mad Hatter hotel. At the period end it had net debt of £138.3m (H1 2025: £128.2m) with cash generated from the business invested in “enhancing the existing estate and financing shareholder returns”. It said that the improvement in profitability has meant that net debt to Ebitda has decreased to 2.18 times leaving “our Balance Sheet in a strong position to take advantage of opportunities to grow the business through acquisition, when the right acquisition targets arise”. During the period its drink like-for-like sales through its managed estate increased by 6.5%, while food like-for-like sales increased by 2%, and accommodation like-for-like sales increased by 3.3%. The business said that tenanted Inns revenue was down slightly in the half year from £17.5m to £16.9m due to the prior year disposal of 37 smaller non-core sites. Total revenue in its Managed Pubs and Hotels division increased by 8% on the prior period. Fuller’s said: “This total growth is assisted by the acquisition of the Lovely Pubs business and The White Swan, Twickenham during the prior period. The improvement in revenue was delivered through pricing, mix and volume growth.” On a like-for-like basis Tenanted revenue was up 2%. Ebitda margin has improved by 1.3ppts to 53.3% which it said “demonstrates the quality of the Tenanted estate and shows the result of proactive estate management in the prior year”. It said: “This effective estate management, combined with good underlying trading, has meant that we have seen a 7.1% increase in the average Ebitda per Tenanted pub to £127,000.” The company said that like-for-like sales for the first 32 weeks of the year to 8 November 2025 were up 4.6%, while Christmas bookings are 16% ahead of the comparable period last year. It has a planned capex of £15m earmarked for the second half, and that the business is in “excellent shape and primed for future long-term growth”. Executive chairman Simon Emeny said: “In my first report as executive chairman, I am delighted to be delivering such a great set of results. The business has performed exceptionally well, outperforming the market and delivering like-for-like sales growth of 4.6%, a 28% increase in adjusted profit before tax to £22.5m and a significant rise in adjusted earnings per share of 38% to 30.03p. This has been achieved through a combination of factors – a clear long-term strategy, our well-invested, predominantly freehold, property portfolio, a premium and resilient customer base, and a team of amazing people throughout the organisation who strive every day to support, promote and deliver brilliant food, drink, accommodation and an outstanding customer experience. Our positive momentum has continued into the second half with like-for-like sales in our Managed Pubs and Hotels for the 32 weeks to 8 November rising by 4.6%. We are heading towards the peak Christmas season and we have a healthy pipeline of Christmas bookings, which is currently 16% ahead of the same time last year. On 26 November 2025, the government will announce its Budget for the coming year. I hope the chancellor has heeded the arguments and proposals articulated by the hospitality sector to avoid further punitive financial measures but, more so, I am frustrated by the lack of a clear plan to deliver the growth the chancellor claims to be seeking. The country needs ambitious and innovative ways to drive sustainable economic success. It needs new ideas, new thinking – and I genuinely hope the government succeeds in that and succeeds quickly. We look forward to continuing to develop the business and drive returns for our shareholders. Our consistent long-term strategy provides a clear focus and vision, our balance sheet is in excellent shape and supports our ambition to grow, and we face the future with optimism, excitement and confidence.”

Premium Club members to receive two updated databases this week: Premium Club subscribers will receive two updated databases this week. The latest Propel UK Food & Beverage Franchisor Database will be sent today (Wednesday, 13 November) at 12pm. The database will feature ten new additions plus updates to existing entries. The database now has 380 entries and more than 224,000 words of copy. Among the new entries are US chicken brand Wingstop, which first entered the UK in 2018 and now has circa 77 sites here; Chuck E Cheese, the US entertainment restaurant brand; and Irish customisable toastie concept Griolladh. Premium Club subscribers will then receive the next Turnover & Profits Blue Book on Friday (15 November), at 12pm. The database will feature 115 updated accounts and six new companies. A total of 737 companies are making a profit while 445 are making a loss. The Blue Book is updated each month and ranks companies by turnover, profit and profit conversion, listing directors' earnings for the past five years. Premium Club subscribers also receive access to five other databases: the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the Multi-Site Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who's Who of UK Hospitality. All Premium Club subscribers will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events and discounts on specialist sector reports. Operators that are Premium Club subscribers are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club subscribers receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club subscribers also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Stonegate CEO – sets out ‘simple, deliverable, material changes that will protect our sector and encourage growth’: David McDowall, chief executive of Stonegate Group, the UK’s largest pub company, has said the government is “failing to support a pillar of our economy that has the potential to be a real engine for growth”, as he set out “simple, deliverable, material changes that will protect our sector and encourage growth”. He said: “As the chief executive of a business that owns over 4,000 pubs, bars and venues – from beloved locals to late-night city haunts – I’ve never seen the sector under greater pressure. Since July 2024, Labour’s tax and regulatory changes have piled £3.4bn in new annual costs onto hospitality due to increases to the National Living Wage, employer National Insurance Contributions, and a reduction in business rates relief, according to analysis by UKHospitality. The real story though, is that we are failing to support a pillar of our economy that has the potential to be a real engine for growth, and to have a positive impact on job creation, and communities all over the UK, quickly. I’m often asked about exactly what we want from a chancellor ahead of a budget. This year it feels more important than ever before. And I’m happy to set this out here. These are simple, deliverable, material changes that will protect our sector and encourage growth. Ultimately the chancellor has to ask herself…does she want a thriving hospitality sector or not? It really is that binary. So, the chancellor has a choice: support growth or accelerate decline. Hospitality – and the 3.5 million jobs tied to it – need three bold reversals. Reverse the Employer NICs Hike – Now: The jump in employer National Insurance Contributions, combined with the threshold slashed to £5,000, costs our sector £1bn a year. This isn’t a tax on profits. It’s a tax on employing people. Every bar team member, every chef, every cleaner now carries a £1,200-plus government surcharge. There are only so many shifts that can be cut, recruitment freezes, passing costs on to our customers, that we can take. Reverse this hike – let the industry create meaningful opportunities for young people and those returning to work. Deliver genuine business rates reform – Not Tinkering: Lower business rates to revive high streets, by delivering the maximum discount for hospitality properties under £500,000 rateable value and applying no penalty charge to larger hospitality properties. Commitment brings certainty, something we desperately need – commitment to full reform in 2026 and commitment to freeze bills in the interim. Pubs are at the heart of communities across the country, yet they pay ten times more in property tax per square foot than out-of-town supermarkets – the system is broken, outdated, and anti-high street. Cut VAT – Britain has Europe’s second highest rate: At 20%, hospitality in the UK pays the second-highest VAT rate in Europe – triple Germany’s reduced rate, quadruple Ireland’s. Our European neighbours cut VAT to save jobs during covid. We increased it. A temporary cut to 12.5% (or better, a permanent 5% hospitality rate) would save pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants from closure, protect jobs and, even more relevant for the chancellor, boost Treasury revenue through growth. This isn’t special pleading. It’s economic sense. Lower VAT means more spending, more jobs, more tax take overall. Chancellor, you’ve said you want growth. Hospitality delivers it. But we’re being taxed harder than banks. Reverse NICs. Reform rates. Cut VAT. Do this, and Britain’s pubs will still be going strong in 2030 – pouring pints, hosting communities, giving young people their first job, and bringing people together up and down the length and breadth of the country.”

Lib Dems call for 5% VAT cut for pubs and restaurants: The Liberal Democrats are calling for a 5% cut in VAT in this month’s budget to support the UK’s ailing hospitality sector and their hard-pressed customers. BBC News reports that deputy leader and Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper has called on the chancellor to cut VAT from 20% to 15% to boost footfall in Britain’s pubs, restaurants and entertainment venues. She said the government should step in to help people obtain “small joys”, such as a meal in a restaurant. This could be funded by a new windfall tax on big banks, originally proposed by the IPPR think tank, which Cooper claimed could raise around £30bn in total between now and 2030. More than half of people think going out to a pub or restaurant was now unaffordable for, according to recent polling from More in Common. Cooper said: “People are working with their nose to the grindstone all month and have next to nothing left over after sky-high bills and spiralling food prices. In years gone by people knew they could look forward to fish and chips with their family on a Friday night or a weekend trip to the cinema. Now those small joys – the ones that make life worth living – are becoming an unaffordable luxury for too many.” Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to break Labour’s manifesto commitment not to increase income tax, VAT or National Insurance in her Budget later this month, and has suggested she will ditch the two-child benefit cap. She is not expected to cut VAT. The Treasury has been contacted for a response to the Lib Dem policy proposal.

Costa attracts takeover interest from backer of China’s Luckin: Centurium Capital, the private equity backer of fast-growing Chinese chain Luckin Coffee, is considering a bid for Costa Coffee. Bloomberg reports that the investment firm has been evaluating whether to make an offer for Costa, which is being sold by Coca-Cola Company. The exact structure of any proposal hasn’t been finalised, and it’s unclear whether Centurium would potentially be bidding itself or through Luckin, which has grown rapidly in recent years to challenge Starbucks in the world’s second-largest economy. UK buyout firm TDR Capital and Bain Capital’s special situations arm are also among parties that have been considering bids for Costa. The next round of offers is expected in the coming weeks. Some suitors have been discussing potential offers valuing Costa at £1bn or more. Deliberations are ongoing, and Coca-Cola could still decide to keep the business. Spokespeople for Bain and TDR declined to comment. Representatives for Centurium, Luckin, Costa Coffee and Coca-Cola didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Coca-Cola acquired Costa from Whitbread in 2018 for £3.9bn.

City’s liquid lunch landmark to reopen: One of the City of London’s hospitality landmarks is set to reopen its doors – albeit in slightly altered form. Simpson’s Tavern has sat in Ball Court, an alleyway off Cornhill, since 1757, serving uncomplicated fare to hungry brokers, dealmakers and regulars including Charles Dickens and William Thackeray. However, the restaurant – not to be confused with the equally historic but separate Simpson’s in the Strand – was closed overnight in 2022 because of a rent dispute. Despite a public outcry, local newspaper campaigns and a crowdfunding push, the doors to Simpson’s have remained locked ever since. The Times reports that the building is now set to reopen as a chophouse, though under a different name. The trio behind Cloth, an acclaimed restaurant off Smithfield, will open Cloth Cornhill next year in the building that housed Simpson’s. The original name is unusable because of legal complications. Cloth’s owners said that “the old Simpson’s spirit will remain” and the menu will feature “chops, steaks and a couple of nods to Simpson’s tradition”. Its “stewed cheese”, served with a lightly toasted slice of white bread, and the tradition of sausages as a side dish continued into the 21st century. The Cloth team – Joe Haynes, Ben Butterworth and Tom Hurst – have also promised to honour the history of “debaucherous wine-fuelled lunches and dinners” at Simpson’s as they look to provide a new destination for the not-yet-extinct long City lunch. The trio have begun work on restoring the Grade II listed building. Historic features including wood-panelled walls, bow windows and the high-backed seating booths will remain after the restoration is carried out “to bring the site up to date”. “We’re very excited to be taking on the stewardship of this beloved institution. The City has long missed the hubbub of Ball Court and we feel extremely privileged to bring it back to life,” the Cloth team said.

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