Greggs starts 2026 strongly after reporting 6.8% rise in sales but fall in profitability in 2025, ‘clear opportunity for significantly more’ than 3,000 stores: Food-to-go retailer Greggs said it has started 2026 strongly, with a healthy pipeline of openings, after reporting a 6.8% rise in sales but a fall in profitability in 2025. In its preliminary results for the year to 27 December 2025, the company said total sales were up from £2,014,000,000 in 2024 to £2,151,000,000 in 2025, with like-for-like sales in company-managed shops up 2.4% year-on-year. Statutory profit before tax was down 17.9% from £203,900,000 in 2024 to £167,400,000 while underlying profit before tax was down 9.4% from £189,800,000 to £171,900,000. For the latter, the 2025 figure excludes the exceptional impact of a £4.5m provision for a historic understatement of VAT self-identified and reported to HMRC in the year, while the 2024 figure excludes the impact of £14.1m exceptional gain primarily related to the sale of a legacy supply site. Chief executive Roisin Currie said: “We have a strong pipeline of new shop openings in 2026, primarily in new catchments that drive strong returns, and our investment in supply chain capacity is on track. Like-for-like sales in company-managed shops have increased by 1.6% year-on-year in the first nine weeks of 2026. Total sales increased by 6.3% year-on-year as we continued to grow our shop estate and benefited from the expansion of our grocery retail business, with strong cost control supporting profit conversion and year-on-year progression. Our strong brand and robust balance sheet position us well and management's expectations for the year remain unchanged, with profit before tax expected to be broadly in line with 2025 and any year-on-year improvement contingent on a recovery in the consumer backdrop. We expect to make profit progress in the first half of 2026 due to the phasing of like-for-like cost inflation across the year and will see an increase in fixed costs as we commission the new Derby site, which will primarily impact the second half.” The company said its share of visits was up 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% in the year. Having previously stated a target of 3,000 stores, Greggs said it now sees a “clear opportunity for significantly more” over the longer term. A total of 121 net openings in 2025 grew the estate to 2,739 shops at the year end, and the company is targeting around 120 net openings in 2026. Currie said the emphasis of its growth will be in locations “where Greggs continues to be underrepresented”, such as retail parks, railway stations, airports, roadsides and supermarkets. She also said in addition to its smaller scale “bitesize” store trial, Greggs is developing “unattended retail solutions, to serve additional missions and further enhance returns”. Delivery sales were up 8.1% in 2025, representing 6.8% of company-managed shop sales (2024: 6.7%), while the Greggs app was scanned in 26.7% of company-managed shop transactions (2024: 20.1%), with customers who engage with the app shopping at Greggs more frequently. Evening remains the fastest growing daypart, with 9.4% of company-managed shop sales in 2025 (2024: 9.0%). Capital expenditure peaked in 2025 at £287.5m and will fall to circa £200m in 2026, before reducing to a range of £150m to £170m from 2027 onwards. The company said its strong operating cash generation will create material capacity for additional cash returns, with a key focus on restoring its return on capital employed to target of around 20%. Full year guidance remains unchanged, with the company expecting to deliver profits at a similar underlying level to 2025, with any year-on-year improvement “contingent on a recovery in the consumer backdrop”. Currie added: “Greggs delivered a resilient performance in 2025, growing market share, alongside continued strategic progress. Despite challenging market conditions, Greggs delivered further sales growth through new shop openings, the development of further partnerships and continued progress in the evening daypart and delivery channel. Subdued consumer confidence impacted trading, but the company’s growth strategy remains intact, with work progressing to develop additional income streams and accelerate cost efficiencies. This, along with the leveraging of new logistics capacity, will support the medium-term plan to restore returns in line with our historic targets. Looking into 2026, easing inflationary pressures should provide some support to consumer spending and demand for convenient food-on-the-go continues to underpin the market. We remain focused on broadening access to Greggs with a strong pipeline of shop openings, exciting launches and deeper customer engagement via the Greggs app. We are seeing some emerging shifts in dietary preferences, with certain consumers seeking greater choice in areas such as increased protein, more fibre and smaller portions. We expect this will be a developing trend and are confident in our ability to evolve our range to appeal to those looking for different nutritional profiles and portion sizes when eating out of home, building on our track record of responding to change and entering new categories with value-based options. Our analysis of the factors impacting sales performance suggests that pressure on disposable incomes remains the key factor. We remain confident that demand for convenient food-on-the-go as customers go about their busy lives will continue to underpin the market. In the year ahead we expect market conditions will remain challenging for the consumer. We continue to stay focused on value and are significantly ahead of our competitors on this metric. Greggs value proposition makes it relatively resilient in the face of cyclical pressure on consumers, and we will continue to focus on this through strong cost control and structural efficiency opportunities. At the same time, we are successfully increasing access to Greggs through the extension of our own shop estate alongside partnerships with grocery, franchise and delivery partners.” The board said it intends to recommend at Greggs’ AGM a final dividend of 50.0 pence per share (2024: 50.0 pence per share), giving a total ordinary dividend for the year of 69.0 pence per share (2024: 69.0 pence per share). 

Premium Club subscribers to receive new searchable and segmented New Openings Database on Friday: The next Propel New Openings Database will be sent to Premium Club subscribers on Friday (6 March), at noon. The database will show the details of 141 site openings, including which company has opened a site or its plans to open one in the future. The database will have details on what type of site it is and its location, and there will also be a website link to the businesses. The database is published on a monthly basis and Premium Club subscribers will also receive a 9,156-word report on the 141 new additions to the database. It is segmented into seven categories – cafe bakery, casual dining, experiential leisure, fine dining, hotels, pubs and bars, and quick service restaurants (QSR) – making it even easier for users to search. The database includes new openings in the QSR sector by smash burger business Brgr Lab, Popeyes UK and Raising Cane’s, the third-largest chicken brand in the US. Premium Club subscribers also receive access to five other databases: the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the Multi-Site Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who’s Who of UK Hospitality. All Premium Club subscribers will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to Propel paid-for events and discounts on specialist sector reports. Operators that are Premium Club subscribers are also able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club subscribers receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club subscribers also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel chief operating officer – editorial, Mark Wingett, and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.