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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Thu 5th Mar 2026 - Foodservice price inflation flattens in January, Chris Burford returns to Leon as CFO
Foodservice price inflation flattens in January: Food and drink prices in the hospitality sector remained virtually flat in January, with month-on-month inflation slowing to just 0.02%, according to the latest Foodservice Price Index from NIQ and Prestige Purchasing. The deceleration follows a sharp festive surge in prices in December. Plateauing categories of the index include oils and fats, where prices dropped month-on-month. There was also a slight easing in the bread and cereals category and a complete flattening of price movement in meat and poultry, as demand cooled after Christmas and global supply balanced. The extreme inflationary pressures that affected the sugar, jam, syrups and chocolate and coffee, tea and cocoa categories throughout 2024 and 2025 have started to ease. Global cocoa futures have dropped to multi-year lows, driven by improved west African harvests and rising global stocks. However, the index shows inflationary momentum has not disappeared entirely. Seasonal and structural challenges pushed fresh produce prices higher in January, with fruit affected by high energy costs for glasshouse-grown berries in Europe and a 30% drop in Spanish lemon volumes. There was also seasonal tightening in some vegetable categories, though overall supply remains more resilient than during the same period last year. Meanwhile, the fish category is still under acute pressure, with cod prices at record highs due to severely restricted quotas. Shaun Allen, chief executive of Prestige Purchasing, said: “The unwinding of the cocoa crisis and the sharp drops in oils and fats provide much-needed breathing room for the hospitality sector after a punishing December. However, with fresh produce still climbing and foundational costs like energy and labour acting as a floor on pricing, true deflation across the board remains elusive.” Reuben Pullan, senior insight consultant at NIQ, added: “With other key costs like labour and taxation so high, there is no room for complacency on pricing and businesses will have to be braced for more volatility in 2026.”

Chris Burford returns to Leon as CFO: Chris Burford has returned to healthy food brand Leon as its chief financial officer, in a move the company said, “reunited founder John Vincent with one of the key figures behind the brand’s growth” and is a “step toward building the leadership team”. Burford first joined Leon in 2014 as director of finance, following a spell leading the finance function at Wagamama, and over the next seven years, became a central part of Leon’s leadership team. Burford helped steer the business through the covid-19 pandemic and helped launch FeedNHS, providing thousands of meals to frontline NHS workers across. Burford also played a key role in the 2021 sale of Leon to EG Group, and following the acquisition, remained within the organisation and took on a senior finance role across the wider EG Group operations. He most recently served as chief financial officer at Boxpark. In his new role, Burford will oversee Leon’s financial strategy, as well as managing property and the commercial aspects of the supply chain, as Leon enters its next phase. Vincent said the appointment reflects a broader effort to reunite key figures who helped shape the brand’s original success. He said: “Chris was key to our successful growth to 2021. It is going to a pleasure to have my right-hand man back because of what he is capable of and because of who he is.” Burford added: “Even though I’ve been away for five years, my love and passion for the brand have renewed. To have the opportunity to be part of its future once again is an honour, and I can’t wait to get started.”

High staff churn linked to seasonal sales decline: High rolling staff churn in the first half of the year leads to weaker revenue performance in the second half, according to industry-wide analysis from people and data specialist Pineapple, in partnership with AI-native workforce management software provider Sona. The two company’s 2025 H2 Insights Report, which analyses workforce and financial data from more than 35,000 employees across 75 national hospitality brands, indicates a strong correlation between high rolling staff churn in the first and second quarters and weaker revenue performance in the third and fourth. It found that brands operating with 12-month rolling employee churn above 66% in the first half of the year recorded an average -11.15% decline in location revenue in the second half, while more stable operators (66.2% churn) achieved 29.63% revenue growth per site over the same period. It said that this represents a 40.8% performance gap between high staff churn and low-churn operators. The analysis also identifies a clear inflection point. Every 1% increase in first half churn correlates with approximately a 1% reduction in second half revenue growth per location. The report also highlights a sharp spike in staff churn during the third quarter, with 12-month rolling churn rising to 75.8% and quarterly churn peaking at 20.7%. This followed a second quarter period where labour costs reached 35% amid mandated wage increases, alongside a dip in engagement scores. Although labour percentages eased to around 32.5% by year end, the data suggests earlier workforce disruption may have had lingering commercial consequences.

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