Fri 10th Apr 2026 - Foodservice inflation dipped slightly in February, but geopolitical risks loom large Foodservice inflation dipped slightly in February, but geopolitical risks loom large: Food and drink prices in the foodservice sector recorded a minor month-on-month decline of -0.2% in February, the latest Foodservice Price Index from NIQ and Prestige Purchasing reveals. Downward movement in February was driven by significant cooling in major categories including milk, cheese and eggs, where prices fell month-on-month after improved European milk availability and softer demand for cheese. The oils and fats category also continued to moderate, while coffee, tea and cocoa prices were reduced by the unwinding of extreme cocoa price inflation, as global supply expectations and market surpluses rose. Other categories, including mineral water, soft drinks and juices and meat and poultry, remained broadly flat in February. Stable packaging costs and softer global sugar inputs helped to offset any significant upward movement in beverage prices, while the meat sector balanced tight domestic beef availability against softer global pork values. However, short-term relief in inflation is heavily overshadowed by the escalating global geopolitical situation. The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in crude oil prices, generating significant concern for future inflation. The sudden spike in energy costs threatens to rapidly drive up costs of manufacturing, packaging and distribution across the entire supply chain, potentially reversing the recent easing of prices. More upward pressures remain elsewhere in the basket. Prices in the bread and cereal category rose as global wheat markets reacted to frost damage and winterkill risks across parts of Europe and the US. Fresh produce also remained challenged, with vegetables ticking up due to crop-transition gaps in key growing regions like Spain and Morocco, while the fish category inflated as strict Barents Sea cod quotas kept whitefish prices at historic highs. Reuben Pullan, senior insight consultant at NIQ, added: “The recent easing of food and drink prices has been a rare and welcome cause for optimism. However, that optimism is being tempered by heightened geopolitical uncertainty and the knock-on impact of higher energy-driven inputs.”