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Mon 12th Apr 2021 - Propel Monday News Briefing

Story of the Day:

S&P – most pub operators will take up to three years to rebuild finances to 2019 levels, larger companies have better recovery prospects: Most pub operators will take up to three years to rebuild their financial profiles to 2019 levels, according to a new report by ratings agency S&P. It said while the welcome prospect of opening after several months and pent-up demand will drive footfall, operating prospects will remain tough over the medium term with larger companies having better chances of recovery. The report, titled “UK Pubs, Shaken And Stirred, Look To Recover After A Cocktail Of Headwinds”, said following the pandemic, customer behaviour will continue evolving. It stated: “We believe the managed pub model will fare better in the recovery phase, although operating performance will vary, with substantial earnings volatility across regions, operators, and formats. The quality of tenants and their ability to adapt to their catchment will play even a bigger role than before, in driving leased and tenanted pubs operating prospects. While managed operators who directly run their pubs have had to bear higher costs during no-trading periods, limited rent outlays (from vast property ownership, furloughs, and business rates holiday) and prudent cash management have allowed them to get a better handle on their liquidity. Historically, managed operators also generated greater earnings and cash flow per pub. We attribute this to their brand awareness and greater vertical integration, consistency of offering, and better logistics across sites. These factors allowed managed chains to have greater control over all aspects of operations, including staff, menus, inventory, repairs, and capital investment. Post-pandemic, we expect the historical trend of gradually converting leased and tenanted pubs to managed pubs will likely gather pace, especially for properties in more attractive catchment areas. While financial flexibility to undertake ambitious expansion or capital expenditure has been severely constrained, we expect the larger and better-capitalised pub companies to actively evaluate their pub estates and take advantage of competitors being forced to sell properties. We anticipate these groups will continue to undertake selective acquisitions and disposals to optimise their property portfolio in relation to demand trends and their coverage footprint. We anticipate food-led operators with takeaway models and pubs that appeal to families, will fare better than their drinks-led counterparts. Still, we expect government policies, incentives, and support to continue to play an important role in shaping the prospects for the sector.”

Industry News:

Propel Premium members to receive curated video library of sector’s finest leaders and entrepreneurs: Propel Premium members can dip into our curated library of the sector’s finest leaders and entrepreneurs, offering their insights on running outstanding businesses in the sector. The ten videos, which will be sent to subscribers on Friday (16 April), include JD Wetherspoon founder and chairman Tim Martin, Dishoom co-founder Shamil Thakrar, Wahaca co-founder Thomasina Miers, Mowgli founder Nisha Katona, BrewDog chief operating officer David McDowall, Coaching Inn Group founder and chief executive Kevin Charity, franchise industry veteran Ian Saunders, Kerb chief executive Simon Mitchell, Crepeaffaire founder Daniel Spinath and The Breakfast Club co-founder Jonathan Arana Morton. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £895 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The regular single subscription rate of £395 plus VAT for operators and £495 plus VAT for suppliers remains the same. Premium subscribers already receive access to Propel’s library of lockdown videos and Friday Wrap interviews. Subscribers receive a password that allows them to watch the interviews on demand. Subscribers also receive exclusive access to the Propel multi-site operator database, which has been fully updated and released. The exhaustive database of businesses, which comprises 1,628 companies, is the most comprehensive multi-site operator information in the sector – and reflects the tumultuous changes of the past year with several hundred businesses disappearing and replaced by several hundred new ones. A new multi-site database will also be sent to Premium subscribers at the end of each month with a report on new companies and changes in the multi-site universe. It provides company names, the people in charge, how many sites each firm operates, its trading name and its registered name at Companies House if different, and what each business specialises in. In a new feature this year, there is a synopsis of what the business does and significant news associated with it. Propel Premium subscribers also receive their morning newsletter 11 hours early, at 7pm the evening before our 6am send-out; regular video content and regular exclusive columns from Propel insights editor Mark Wingett. Email anne.steele@propelinfo.com to sign up.
 
Trade bodies issue one-page document containing key advice for reopening hospitality sites: Hospitality trade bodies have issued a one-page guide stating the key rules hospitality sites must follow so they can reopen sites safely and in accordance with government guidelines. The guide has been made so licensees have clarity after some local authorities sent differing and incorrect information to some businesses. The document, which has been produced by UKHospitality, the British Beer & Pub Association and the British Institute of Innkeeping, urges enforcement bodies to take a light-touch but consistent approach at sites reopening on Monday (12 April). Key points from the guide include social distancing applies between groups of customers (not within groups sitting at tables); payment is permitted at the bar as a last resort if payment cannot be taken outside; and test and trace contact details have to be taken for all customers eating and drinking outside at a venue. A spokesman for the trade associations said: “Reopening of pubs and other hospitality businesses outdoors is a step forward for the full reopening of our sector. Safety of our staff and customers remains our top priority – as is consistent interpretation of the new rules. By referring to this handy checklist, hospitality operators can ensure they are taking the right steps to reopen outdoors”. 

Sector job vacancies increase 50% since start of year but talent gap at junior management level: Sector job vacancies have increased 50% since the beginning of the year but there is a talent gap at junior management level, especially in the capital, according to analysis by recruitment consultancy COREcruitment. Its salary tracker for the first quarter also highlighted a rise in executives looking to give back and support smaller operators and up-and-coming business leaders in the sector through an increase in non-executive director appointments. Businesses are also looking to fill knowledge and skill gaps through a non-executive director appointment as opposed to a full-time position. The company has also highlighted the latest executive salary levels, with chief executives earning from £100,000 for small businesses, up to in excess of £250,000 at large companies. A COREcruitment spokeswoman said: “It was a slow and hesitant start in January with many businesses navigating the lockdown measures. The impact of this on recruitment was widespread with much recruitment being delayed. However, certain positions and skill sets including marketing, HR and supply chain continued to see interest, with many businesses looking to bolster their support functions internally. As we approach spring, many businesses are looking to build their team for the summer or prepare for new openings, and our team has noticed a talent gap at junior management level, especially in the capital. Due to the financial pressure the pandemic and Brexit has created, many individuals moving out of the city or out of the UK are not looking to return and this has created more demand. Salaries for mid-level and senior management vary based on subsectors. Candidates in hotel and casual dining business may notice lower base salaries with smaller business with the addition of more substantial long-term incentives. Looking ahead to the next three months, it is going to a busy period of re-establishing the industry and recruitment is expected to be busy.” To view the salary checker, click here.
COREcruitment is a Propel BeatTheVirus campaign member
 
Pub operators invest £285m to support leased and tenanted businesses ahead of reopening: Pub operators have invested more than £285m in supporting their leased and tenanted publicans as they prepare to reopen once more from Monday (12 April). The findings by the British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA) show the investment came in the form of rent and other costs being either waived or reduced during the covid-19 pandemic, and comes on top of significant financial support to help ensure pubs are covid-secure. This includes marquees and teepees in pub gardens, along with outdoor heaters and outdoor beer pumps and fridges. The trade association said the government must now recognise the investment the pub industry has made in its pubs by continuing to support the long-term recovery of UK pubs and address the disproportionate tax burden faced through permanently lower VAT rates extended to all food and drink, a cut in beer duty and business rates reform. BBPA chief executive Emma McClarkin said: “We truly believe our pubs have a great future ahead of them, which is why, at every level, the sector is investing in them. Crucial to pubs’ recovery though is ensuring the government matches this investment by the industry with its own financial support.”
 
No reason why Welsh sector businesses cannot reopen ahead of schedule following earlier relaxation of other restrictions, argues UKHospitality Cymru: There is no reason why Wales’ hospitality businesses cannot open ahead of schedule following the relaxation of restrictions on gyms, other leisure businesses and household mixing ahead of schedule, UKHospitality Cymru has argued. Gyms and leisure centres will be able to open from 3 May – instead of 10 May – while two households can form a support bubble to meet indoors from the same date. Wedding receptions outdoors for up to 30 people will be allowed from 26 April, also moving forward a week. UKHospitality Cymru executive director David Chapman said: “The drop in cases of almost 50% in a week to a low of 21 per 100,000 – the lowest number and comparable with when we were open for business in September – shows the huge success of the vaccination programme. This should allow the opening of the doors to our beleaguered businesses. We are opening outdoors on 26 April, two weeks after England, yet have been closed longer. The indoor opening ‘soft target’ is still a very long way off, some time before the end of May. There are simply no reasons now why we couldn’t be fully open before England or at the very latest alongside England on 17 May. We are still waiting to see what grant support we have from 1 April and extended closure is unnecessarily threatening jobs in communities that rely on our businesses.”
 
SBPA calls for fairer deal for licensed trade with level 3 restrictions to cause 79% drop in turnover: The Scottish Beer & Pub Association (SBPA) has called for a fairer deal for the country’s pubs, bars and other licensed venues ahead of expected reopening later this month. Under current plans, pubs and bars will be severely limited in their ability to trade viably once allowed to reopen but will receive no extra support in comparison with other sectors that will be able to trade close to normal as soon as they open. A survey by the trade body showed the level 3 restrictions will see estimated turnover fall by 79%, making the majority of Scotland’s licensed venues entirely unviable. SBPA chief executive Emma McClarkin said: “The economic support provided by both governments has been instrumental in preventing business failures, but the current arrangement is grossly unfair to our sector. Due to the nature of our business, a huge percentage of trade takes place in the evening but we’ve still no date for when we will be able to return to normal licensing hours. Even at level 2, the restrictions on hours will see pubs down 20% on turnover. The Scottish government must look again at the curfew and allow us to return to regular licensing hours as soon as possible or provide those businesses impacted with adequate financial support to get them through. The current arrangement is simply unfair to the licensed trade and the thousands of employees who work in the sector.” 
 
London set for £500m spending surge as pubs and restaurants reopen: London is set for a revitalising £500m spending surge as restaurants, pubs and stores reopen after more than three months of lockdown. The capital’s hospitality and retail sectors are readying themselves ahead of reopening on Monday (12 April) as virus restrictions start to be lifted. Simon French, chief economist at City broker Panmure Gordon, said extra spending in the first week alone could be worth half a billion pounds. Over the course of the second quarter of this year, covering April, May and June, London’s economy is expected to grow by about £6bn as lockdown is lifted under the government’s roadmap. French told PA: “While this will still leave the London economy £7bn smaller than during the quarter before the pandemic struck, this is an important step on the road to recovery. But for the long-term health of the London economy, it is important shoppers and office workers feel safe as they return. This will be the single biggest factor in unlocking wallets and purses.” Central London restaurants and bars have reported “overwhelming” levels of bookings for outdoor tables from Monday. Westminster Council leader Rachael Robathan said: “It’s important we take these initial steps back to normality safely, so we will be working with businesses to manage queues and pointing people to information on when public transport is quieter.”
 
Teams excited for reopening but more engagement needed: Hospitality teams will return to the front line with renewed confidence about safety and the future of the sector but employers will have to work hard to keep them well and motivated. Those are the messages from a new survey by CGA and CPL Learning of the Hospitality Professionals panel, a group of more than 150 people working in front and back-of-house roles that provides crucial perspectives on the industry. The research suggests the covid vaccination programme and the government’s roadmap have lifted professionals’ moods ahead of reopening. Three quarters (76%) said they feel confident about returning to work, with “motivated”, “excited” and “hopeful” the three words most used to describe their sentiments. Almost three quarters (72%) of team members are now optimistic about the long-term future of hospitality – double the number (36%) who felt that way in the October edition of the Hospitality Professionals survey. The number feeling concerned about their long-term job security has meanwhile dipped by seven percentage points. But the Hospitality Professionals survey also provides reminders that employers will need to manage teams carefully when venues reopen. More than half (54%) admit to at least a little apprehension about returning, and respondents cite mental and physical wellbeing and regular communication as their top priorities in the short term. Professionals have been generally happy with levels of engagement from their businesses during lockdown though those feeling satisfied about financial support (65%) and mental health support (62%) are notably higher than those satisfied with professional development support (54%). 

Company News:

Alex Reilley – Monday only represents a tiny step forward: Alex Reilley, chairman of cafe bar operator Loungers, has said it is great to be “reopening” 47 of the company’s 170 sites on Monday (12 April) but that it is only a “tiny step forward” for the sector and that the future for some “still hangs in the balance”. He said: “It’s absolutely fantastic to have some of our teams back and it’s great to be ‘reopening’ 47 of our sites (out of 170). However, [Monday] represents only a tiny step forward and the majority of hospitality businesses will still be closed for the next five weeks. We know those businesses that are opening outside space will be enthusiastically supported by the great British public and we hope (and pray) the weather gods are on our side. However, for many in our sector, there are still weeks of frustration and uncertainty ahead, and the future – for some – still hangs in the balance. Hospitality will do what it does best – adapt and overcome, and face the challenges thrown at us head-on but there’s still a long road ahead. So best of luck to everyone who’s embracing the opportunity – it’s going to be interesting. And for those that aren’t blessed with a garden, roof terrace, small strip of pavement or a dynamic local council that has thought about how it can help as opposed to how it should police, please know the fight continues.” Matt Snell, chief executive of Italian casual dining group Gusto, tweeted: “Big day [on Monday] for pub beer gardens and the odd restaurant terrace. Let’s be clear though to Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson, hospitality reopens for real in late May, which will have been a closure, in some cases, of almost eight months. I really don’t feel like celebrating the crumbs you’ve thrown us.”

Slim Chickens to add to Midlands estate with Cannock opening: Boparan Restaurant Group (BRG) is to add to its Slim Chickens estate, with a further opening in the West Midlands, in Cannock. Propel understands the company will unveil its 11th Slim Chickens restaurant in the new McArthurGlen Designer Outlet in Cannock, this June. The upcoming opening comes just three years after the brand’s successful UK launch on London’s James Street, which was followed by openings in Birmingham, Cardiff, Bristol and a further two restaurants in central London. Last year, Slim Chickens opened in Bluewater, Southampton, Exeter and The Trafford Centre – its biggest restaurant to date. Propel understands a site in Brighton is also close to being secured for the Slim Chickens brand. Richard Pigott, head of operations at Slim Chickens, said: “Despite the challenging business environment, we are committed to growing the brand throughout the UK. We are building on success, adapting nimbly to shifts in the market, and delivering innovative solutions to creating brand loyalty and reaching new customer.” BRG said the Cannock opening highlights its “ambitious growth plans for Slim Chickens with more restaurant openings planned in key cities across the UK”. Last November, BRG entered into a franchise agreement to launch the US concept in the south west of England. The company signed the franchise agreement with KK Restaurants SW, an established franchise operator with a track record in rolling out hospitality brands, including Pizza Hut Delivery and Costa Coffee, in the region. The first restaurant under the new agreement, which will see KK Restaurants SW open an initial five outlets in the south west, opened in Exeter. Last July, BRG confirmed JRK Restaurants as the first UK franchise partner for Slim Chickens as it sought to accelerate the growth of the “better chicken” brand. BRG entered into a franchise development agreement with JRK Restaurants under which the new partners will open initially five outlets across the south coast.

Adventure Bar Group accelerates growth plans as it expands beyond London with Birmingham launches: London bar operator Adventure Bar Group is accelerating its growth plans by unveiling new venues in Birmingham – stepping beyond the capital for the first time. The group, led by founders Thomas Kidd and Tobias Jackson, will debut the first of two new sites on Monday (12 April) with the launch of an outdoor bar and dining concept called Luna Springs, in Digbeth. This will be followed in May by a second site when Tonight Josephine arrives in the city centre. Luna Springs is set to be the city’s largest outdoor bar and entertainment space, with a phased opening plan that will see the venue expand its capacity – with more bars and eating brands added – over the coming months. While it will launch with a capacity of 400 guests, in time, the group expects to be able to accommodate up to 1,500 people at the venue. The Luna Springs food line-up at launch will include The English Indian, Handmade Pizza, Happy Patty Burgers and, from the end of April, Mother Clucker. Meanwhile, the expansion of Adventure Bar Group’s cocktail bar concept Tonight Josephine will see a 350-capacity venue open in Stephenson Street. It will be the group’s second stand-alone Tonight Josephine, after the first at London’s Waterloo. The venue was acquired last year and developed in time for a November launch, which was then shelved to fall in-line with trading restrictions as a result of the pandemic. It will launch on Monday, 17 May. Jackson said: “We’ve been looking to expand our presence outside of London for some time and these two venues feels like the perfect next step for our business. Tonight Josephine is a concept we can share with lots more people in key cities across the UK.” The Adventure Bar Group operates 12 sites in London and Birmingham, including branded bars Tonight Josephine, Bar Elba, Blame Gloria and The Escapologist.

YO! excited about the future potential of To Go concept after opening a second site: Emma Deabill, managing director restaurants UK & International at YO! Group has told Propel the company is excited about the future potential of its YO! To Go format after the opening of the second site under the concept, in Bath. Debuted in November 2019 in Manchester Piccadilly Station, the second site under the grab-and-go format opened on Brunel Square, Bath, at the start of this month. The opening of the new site also saw the launch of YO!’s first takeaway breakfast range, featuring build-your-own breakfast baps drizzled with tonkatsu, banana and agave porridge, yogurt and berries and a selection of pastries. The site’s coffee is supplied by local coffee roastery Dusty Ape. Consumers are able to order using a QR code and pay through a digital menu on their phone. There will also be QR codes on tables in the outside dining area, allowing customers to enjoy YO! alfresco. Click and collect and delivery, the latter through Deliveroo, is also available. The menu features a range of sushi sets freshly rolled each day, including YO! classics like the Sushi Sharer and Crunchy California Roll, as well as a selection of hot fresh street food like ramen, katsu curry and gyoza. It also features 13 different vegan dishes. Deabill told Propel: “We’re delighted to be returning to Bath and opening the second stand-alone YO! To Go as we continue to test our new grab-and-go concept. Developing this part of our proposition is an integral part of our multi-channel strategy to drive availability and awareness of Japanese food. While it’s very early days, the response from people of Bath has been fantastic and we’re excited about the future potential of the format as we look to engage with more consumers.”

McDonald’s to open outdoor seating areas at 443 restaurants on Monday, £5 off when spending £20: McDonald’s has said it will reopen outdoor dining areas at 443 of its restaurants on Monday (12 April) in line with the lifting of restrictions. It also said people using the McDonald’s app will get £5 off their order when spending more than £20 for one day only. Sites reopening include Newmarket Road in Cambridge, Liverpool Street in London and Queens Drive in Liverpool. McDonald’s stated: “We are opening outdoor areas slowly and safely, with table service-only and, in some cases, limited seating to accommodate social distancing. When using outdoor seating, we strongly encourage customers to order via the My McDonald’s app to minimise congestion within the restaurant. If you do need to order at the kiosk, please wear a face mask when entering the restaurant, unless you are exempt. Outdoor tables will be sanitised between use and you may need to wait for a table due to limited seating.”

Tokyo Industries gets licence for £3.5m ‘super high-end’ hotel and bar in York city centre: Tokyo Industries, led by entrepreneur Aaron Mellor, has been granted a licence for its “super high end” hotel and bar planned for York city centre. Plans for the former Carluccio’s and former Marchbrae store in St Helen’s Square to be turned into a hotel, restaurant and bar with roof terrace have taken a step forward. The £3.5m development would see a “speakeasy” bar and restaurant created in the former Carluccio’s alongside the tearoom that has already opened. The first floor would be opened up and live jazz or burlesque shows could take place at the venue. The former Marchbrae next door would be turned into a hotel. The roof terraces would also be opened as bars with seating but would close earlier than the indoor areas. Police and the city council raised concerns about the venue during a licensing hearing, reported York Mix. Solicitor Paddy Whur, representing Tokyo Industries, said the venue would be “very high end” with cocktails at the “speakeasy” bar costing up to £15 each. Mellor said the upper floors of the buildings have been derelict for decades and the scheme would bring two large sites back into use and create 120 jobs. Whur said: “Aaron’s pulled the opening hours back significantly from what was applied for. At a time when the leisure industry and retail is suffering more than we’ve ever seen, you’ve got a person of quality prepared to invest £3.5m and create 120 jobs in the centre of York. This is a ground-breaking development. Do you really think we’re going to invest this money in a massively expensive high-end hotel and then create a nuisance in our other premises next door so the hotel fails?”
 
Thirteen-fold increase in online sales boosts BrewDog’s revenue by 10% in 2020: Scottish brewer and retailer BrewDog has announced an explosion in online sales has helped boost revenue by 10% in 2020. Revenue for the year reached £238m, which included a 13-fold increase of its digital sales, according to City AM. BrewDog said it has shipped 242 million cans of beer through the pandemic-struck year and it was also named Brand Finance’s 18th most valuable beer brand. Co-founder James Watt said: “BrewDog was founded to change the world of beer, putting purpose and the planet before profit. This year has been one like no other, but that’s not stopped us pushing forward with our commitment to doing business for good, and continuing our fight against climate change. The support for our initiatives across the business is a sign that our customers want to be part of something better, and to be part of the change the world so badly needs. There are no radical solutions left.” 

Chef Jake Finn to open debut restaurant Cinder in Belsize Village: Chef Jake Finn, who has worked at London restaurants including La Petite Maison, Coya and The Ritz, will open his debut restaurant Cinder in Belsize Village later this month. The 16-cover restaurant will have additional seating for 16 outside, meaning it will be able to open for outside dining. As such, Cinder will open on 20 April, with inside dining set to commence from 17 May, restrictions permitting. It will serve a menu of dishes where ingredients have been cooked on a Josper grill, with grilled meals taking influences from Peru, Japan, Italy, France and Greece. Menu items will include seared tuna, black beer ponzu, radish and spring onion; lamb kebabs marinated in yoghurt, maple syrup, oregano and sage; and grilled mastelo cheese with kalamata glaze and oregano. There will also be sharing dishes for two, such as whole sea bream, fennel, radish and herbs; and a dessert of apple tarte fine with vanilla cream. Finn said: “There is nothing purer than cooking food over fire. I’ve been obsessed with barbecue and cooking over grills since I was little. But, for me, it’s unadulterated cooking, food as it was intended to be eaten. At Cinder, I’m pushing that out but also bringing some ‘chefiness’ into the proceedings with sauces, reductions, stocks and killer sides. It’s a dream come true.”
 
Former MasterChef finalist and EAT executive chef to launch QSR concept: Former MasterChef finalist and EAT executive chef Arnaud Kaziewicz is to launch a new quick service restaurant (QSR) concept called Loaf & Coal, Propel has learned. French-born Kaziewicz, who was a MasterChef: The Professionals finalist in 2016 and has worked in some of the UK’s most renowned Michelin-starred restaurants, will open the first site under the new concept in Southbourne Grove, Bournemouth, next month. Kaziewicz, who spent two years at EAT before its sale to Pret, helping enhance its offer, said: “I am passionate about where food comes from. Knowing that your bread has been slow-proven and baked with love. Your beef has been grass-fed and aged with care. Your eggs have come from chickens that roam freely, and even your coffee has been sourced directly from the farm. Loaf & Coal will be serving food sourced with care, served with flair.”
 
Costa to offer customers hot drink for 50p as part of 50th anniversary celebrations: Costa Coffee, owned by Coca-Cola, is continuing its 50th anniversary by offering customers a hot drink for 50p. From Tuesday (13 April) to Thursday (15 April), registered Costa Coffee Club mobile app users, who scan the app when they purchase any hot drink at a participating Costa Coffee store, will receive it for 50p. Customers can also take up the offer if they are using either a drive-thru or click and collect via the Costa Coffee mobile app. A Costa Coffee spokeswoman said: “We know it’s been a tough start to 2021 for many and we want to bring some joy to our customers this spring, especially at a time when lockdown restrictions are easing.” All Costa Coffee stores are open for takeaway, drive-thru, click and collect and delivery. From Monday (12 April), Costa is reopening its outdoor seating areas in England.

PubLove launches planet-positive happy hour: PubLove, the hostel-pub company founded in 2007 by Ben Stackhouse, is marking reopening this week with the launch of a new happy hour. Partnering with global not-for-profit Eden Reforestation Projects, PubLove will fund the planting of a tree for every drink purchased between 5pm and 7pm daily in its central London hostel-pubs. The Happy Hour expands on the group’s previous initiatives, which has seen it partner with Sapling Vodka, Green Couriers, Rubies in the Rubble and One Water as well as moving all merchandise to eco alternatives. Stackhouse said: “The past year has allowed us to rethink and reinvent how we can make a more positive impact on the world. Our new planet-positive happy hour is the next step.” PubLove currently operates six hostel-pubs in central London, including the Rose & Crown in London Bridge and the Exmouth Arms in Euston, as part of the Stonegate Pub Partnership joint venture programme.

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