Subjects: Whatever happened to the J-shaped curve, let’s look beyond the headlines, pass the parcel, South Korea was good for the Seoul
Authors: Phil Mellows, Mark Bentley, Sarah Travell, Ann Elliott
Whatever happened to the J-shaped curve by Phil Mellows
At the fag-end of the 19th century, when the temperance movement in the UK was about to reach its zenith, a Dr Joseph Mortimer Granville wrote to The Times declaring that, on the contrary, people weren’t drinking enough. Abstinence and moderation were, in fact, making them ill.
His letter was unearthed a few years ago by geographer-of-drink James Kneale, who speculated that Granville was courting controversy to win friends and drum up business, like an early celebrity medic – and he did subsequently put his name to adverts for port wine. Kneale, by the way, does not believe that Granville did what he is most famous for, which is inventing the vibrator.
The idea that alcohol might be good for you didn’t go away though. From the 1970s, it has circled around research that suggests taking a certain amount of drink is protective against heart disease – presented graphically as a J-shaped curve in which the left point of the J are abstainers who are dying younger than those who drink – but not too much.
That theory is fiercely contested, and a thoughtful article by science journalist Tim Requarth in American online magazine Slate this week wonders whether the curve has been flattened for good by growing evidence of the link between drinking and some cancers.
The culprit here is not alcohol itself but acetaldehyde, a chemical produced by the body as a by-product of metabolising alcohol, something that humanity’s ancestors evolved to do some ten million years ago to enable them to eat rotting fruit on the forest floor. At least according to the “drunken monkey thesis”, which sounds good to me.
So, while scientists might accept the J-shaped curve applies to heart disease, its benefits are outweighed by the cancer. That view lies behind Canada’s decision earlier this year to not only tighten its recommended drinking guidelines, but to assert that because alcohol/acetaldehyde is a known carcinogen, there can be no safe level of alcohol consumption.
This was already the World Health Organisation’s position, but Canada’s move caught the headlines. You can spend a lot of time and effort picking apart the data behind this. In short, it remains contested. I’m not going to go there, but I’ll make some general points.
My first thought is that the “no threshold“ argument, if you really mean the tiniest amount is dangerous, seems daft. Alcohol is present in all kinds of daily foodstuffs, from bread to fruit. You can’t avoid it. It also sounds like a bad position for the medical profession to take. I do think guidelines can be helpful when someone is damaging their health by drinking too much and needs to cut down. Telling them the only hope is to abstain completely is not going to play well.
And the risk for moderate drinkers of contracting alcohol-related cancer is very small. Requarth points out that, “if 143 middle-aged men drink once a day, there might be, in the near-term, one additional death”. Bad luck, of course, if you’re that one. But it puts the argument into perspective.
A bigger problem with epidemiological studies is that they rarely take into account social contexts. We know nothing about the behaviours behind the numbers, the way people drink. Health is not just about what you put into your body, and assessing the impact of drinking goes beyond chemical reactions. We are not lab rats.
And we know that social interaction is vital to our well-being. Going to the pub is a healthy thing to do. The interesting puzzle is, does that have to involve alcohol? Can we remove it and get the same benefits? Now that would be an anthropological question, as Father Jack might say. It must be significant that where human beings began to live in settled communities, around 10,000 years ago, we also find evidence of brewing and of places where people could gather, much like a pub.
Perhaps we have always known that our essential society with others – conversation, a bit of singing and dancing – is lubricated by a drop of some mild, disinhibiting, psychoactive substance. And it seems to me that the social benefits make for a better argument than a purely medicinal one when it comes to defending drinking against those who would curtail our pleasures.
I just don’t think the battle for the J-shaped curve is winnable any more than Joseph Mortimer Glanville’s quackery. Claiming that booze is medicine can perhaps win you friends, but how are you going to get people, each of whom react differently to it, to take the precise dosage required? Arguing about alcohol without understanding drinking as a social activity is going to get you nowhere.
Phil Mellows is a freelance journalist
Let’s look beyond the headlines by Mark Bentley
Reading some of the recent headlines in the mainstream media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that we’re all staying at home and no longer going out to pubs, bars and restaurants. As the cost-of-living crisis grips the nation, we’re all entertaining at home and spending more time sat on our sofas thanks to new seasons of TV shows such as Succession and Ted Lasso. Thankfully, the reality is very different, and there’s a need to look beyond the lazy headlines to really understand what’s happening in terms of customer behaviour.
Hospitality has faced unprecedented challenges in the last few years – from the pandemic, with its periods of enforced closure, trading restrictions and general uncertainty, to the cost-of-living crisis that we’re currently facing. Along the way there’s certainly been some bizarre moments, such as the debates over whether a sausage roll could be classed as a substantial meal. I’m sure most of us will hope the challenges of the pandemic years are firmly confined to the history books, but it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on what’s changed since those pre-covid days and to what extent the world we’re living in now is genuinely different.
Out of necessity, the use of technology accelerated rapidly, with employees leaving their offices and adopting systems such as Microsoft Teams, with enforced working from home demonstrating that many roles could be fulfilled just as effectively remotely rather than always being based in a traditional office environment. Delivery services saw a rapid rise, including the phenomenal growth of Amazon for anything and everything that you could possibly ever want to buy from physical shops, while delivery aggregators such as Deliveroo, Just Eat and UberEats all experienced significant sales growth as we opted for the convenience of eating in when going out wasn’t an option.
When pubs, bars and restaurants reopened and were legally required to offer table service, technology was a key part of the solution, with order-and-pay apps proliferating and the unexpected renaissance of the QR code. In terms of drinks choices, pubs, bars and restaurants saw a huge shift in their drink sales mix, with premiumisation trends accelerating and categories such as world lager enjoying meteoric growth, while cocktails, shots and bombs all enjoyed a significant upturn in sales.
Many of the changes that happened during the pandemic can be regarded as “accelerated trends”, and I would see all the examples outlined above sitting under this category. However, it’s fair to say that there’s subsequently been a degree of normalisation at play, with things settling down but continuing to trend ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Many of us have returned to working in offices, but hybrid working arrangements are now far more common than they were previously. Amazon delivery vans are ubiquitous on our streets, but their sales softened in 2022 as life returned to “normal”, while remaining way ahead of pre-pandemic levels. For food delivery we see a similar pattern, with data from our HDI panel data for the 12 weeks ending 18 April 2023, tracking the debit and credit card spending of 10.2 million unique customers, showing that delivery now represents nearly £12 in every £100 spent in hospitality, up from just over £6.50 per £100 pre-pandemic.
In pubs, bars and restaurants, order-and-pay apps and QR code-based ordering systems are now far more readily available than pre-pandemic, but their usage has dropped off markedly. Many people like the convenience of being able to order and pay from their table without having to queue at the bar or wait for table service, but the ritual of ordering at the bar is something that many of us love. When it comes to drinks choices, there’s been an expected slowdown in cocktails, shots and bombs sales, but premium choices are still very much the order of the day, even in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, as demonstrated by the continued phenomenal growth of world lager brands like Madri Excepcional and Birra Moretti.
Reflecting on the last few years, it’s clear to see that there has been lots of changes, but in many respects, not much has changed. We may currently be facing some significant headwinds, but if we can take anything from the last few years, it’s that we’re social beings and have an innate desire to want to spend time with others. This is where hospitality well and truly comes into its own, delivering experiences that you simply cannot get at home. Let’s look beyond the headlines, properly understand how customer behaviour is changing and focus on how we can ensure hospitality continues to give people reasons to visit.
Mark Bentley is the business development director of HDI, provider of card spending insight and pricing data to the UK hospitality sector. He is a former category management controller at Molson Coors Beverage Company and a qualified beer sommelier
Pass the parcel by Sarah Travell
When one door closes, another opens. When it comes to the health of the UK’s hospitality sector, that phrase continually rings true. Earlier this month, Italian restaurant chain Prezzo took the decision to close 46 sites, mostly based in market towns across England. While the closure of any site is sad, you would expect operators both large and small, branded and independent, to already be looking at those sites as an opportunity to grow their own businesses and market share – for the right price.
The Propel Premium Database of Multi-Site Companies, the latest edition of which will be sent to Premium subscribers today (Friday, 28 April), has now grown to include 2,832 companies. An additional 23 companies, which operate 181 sites between them, were added during April 2023. It features many of the aforementioned businesses that continue to explore growth opportunities, despite the continued challenging trading environment. The likes of Loungers and Gail’s have already begun taking on ex-Prezzo sites and more are sure to follow.
Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen examples of ambitious expansion plans, with businesses again focusing on a mixture of franchise and company-owned sites. Better burger brand Boo is eyeing 300 UK sites and overseas expansion after making its international debut and appointing former Amazon UK project manager Gareth Jones as its first operations director. Founded in 2017, the family-owned venture started the year with five sites and aims to add the same number in 2023. Its first franchise store opened in Preston in December, followed by its second, in Birmingham, in February. This will be followed by a further franchise site, in Leicester, and company-owned sites, in Derby and Manchester, in the coming months. It has also just made its international debut, opening a site in the Yas Mall in Abu Dhabi.
Birmingham Indian street food concept Karak Chaii, which was founded by Javed and Sara Sughir, operates 15 sites in the UK and said this month it can comfortably open up to 80 more sites before exploring smaller formats. The franchise company this month opened its latest site, in Southall, west London, which will be followed shortly by a site in Bolton, Greater Manchester. Its footprint is expected to then grow to 20 by the summer and 25 by the end of the year. “We can open another 60 to 80 comfortably within three years without taking risks with demographic or location, before looking at smaller formats,” company advisor Paolo Peretti recently told Propel.
Sticking with Indian street food, Chaiiwala is “conservatively” looking at 500 stores in the UK on top of its current 85-strong estate, including more drive-thru locations. Speaking at the Propel’s recent Multi-Club Conference, Simon Hooper, international business director of Chaiiwala, said the UK side of the company has already got “250 new stores on an opening schedule”. He said: “We’ve got seven corporate stores. The corporate stores are for us to understand the service we’re providing to our partners. And then we have a very select process where we bring in partners of various sizes. We are working with the top five retail groups in the UK. So, we’ve got partners who’ve got more than 6,500 stores, which gives us structure, scale, best practice and cutting-edge information intelligence.”
And while it is good to see the franchise sector continuing its momentum, it is equally good to see pub operators, both big and small, also taking the opportunity to build their estates. Berkeley Inns, the award-winning Derbyshire gastropub operator, has begun building its estate in London after securing a second site in the capital. The Howard Thacker-led company, which secured its debut site in the capital at the start of the year, The Rugby Tavern in Bloomsbury, fought off strong competition from other London multiple pub operators to secure The Knights Templar, Chancery Lane. Berkeley Inns was established in November 2014 and also operates the Horseshoes in Long Lane Village, Derbyshire; The Cow in Dalbury Lees; and the Bluebell Inn in Kirk Langley, Hertfordshire.
Its aim “is to revitalise great properties, recapturing the atmosphere of the local pub alongside a high-quality food offer”. On its plans for expansion in London, Thacker said: “It depends on suitable sites becoming available, but our initial strategy envisages six units by the end of 2024.” At the same time, Punch Pubs & Co acquired two new community pubs to add to its 1,300-strong portfolio, and said it was “seeking more quality acquisitions, including packages and single-site opportunities”. The company has acquired The Harrows Inn, in the South Staffordshire village of Coven, close to Wolverhampton, and the Cornerhouse in Beverley, East Yorkshire.
The above examples all highlight how doors continue to close and open in the industry. Thus, while further closures and estate consolidation are expected over the coming months, there remain plenty of businesses, new and old, that are looking to step into the breach and continue to add life to high streets up and down the country.
Sarah Travell is the founder and chief executive of Virgate, sponsor of the Propel Multi-Site Database. The latest version of the database will be sent to Premium subscribers today (Friday, 28 April). A total of 23 new multi-site companies, operating 181 sites, have been added this month, meaning it now features 2,832 companies. The comprehensive database is updated monthly and provides company names, the people in charge, how many sites each firm operates, its trading name and its registered name at Companies House if different. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The single subscription rate is £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Email jo.charity@propelinfo.com to upgrade your subscription.
South Korea was good for the Seoul by Ann Elliott
“You will end up eating dog without knowing it.” This was one of the many comments on Korean food that I heard before heading out to spend eight days on holiday in South Korea in mid-May. We didn’t eat dog, I am sure. Seemingly though, older Koreans who starved post the Korean war and had no choice sometimes but to eat dog in order to live, can still find it in certain restaurants – under the radar and out in the countryside. That comment though perhaps shows some of the prevailing preconceptions about the country.
Helen Jones and I went out there for a food tour, but to be perfectly honest, we were not too sure what to expect either. That uncertainty not only applied to the food but also to its people, its transport system, its culture and its weather. From the start, it surprised us. South Korea is energetic, dynamic, forward thinking, friendly, efficient and proud of its move from being one of the worst performing economies in the world after the Second World War to now being grouped among the best.
It surprised us just how helpful people were. It was (relatively) easy to get around, but the moment we stopped to look at a map, we were instantly approached by English-speaking locals asking if we wanted help. Commuters on the subway sometimes moved seats so Helen and I could sit together and try to work out if we were going in the right direction or not. Even then, on the underground, people would ask if we were okay. On one occasion, we were led by the station manager to the right exit for a restaurant we wanted to find (and asked to pray together on the pavement before we parted ways).
We were surprised by how safe it was. Imagine going to the loo and leaving your bag on a chair deliberately; being jostled on the tube in the crowds and not wondering if your purse had been pinched; or not having to worry about having your phone stolen out of your hand when you’re walking along a street. It really does lighten your spirit.
It surprised us with the range and quality of its food. I heard that there are more than 600,000 restaurants in South Korea and more than 125,000 restaurants in Seoul alone, of which 176 are listed in the Michelin Guide (including 35 with a star and 57 Bib Gourmand-rated restaurants). Restaurants, bars, cafes and coffee shops are absolutely everywhere. There are few western chains, although you can find McDonald’s and Starbucks if you are really desperate.
We ate in fish markets, food markets, tourist cafes, back street restaurants with plastic seats, posh (and not-so-posh) hotels, old converted factories, Korean barbecue places and cafes up narrow side streets where cars couldn’t pass. Most of the time, our menus featured pictures of plates of food and the team spoke English, but it did spice up the experience when we had neither.
We had fabulous croissants in one of the many Parisienne bakeries and a great stuffed pork dish in the unlikely environs of Seoul railway station. Without doubt, the noisiest and liveliest restaurant was the one serving fried chicken and beer. The bustle was incredible and the place full to the rafters, with boisterous Koreans celebrating the end of the week. It was simply awesome.
In contrast, the quietest place we tried was a Michelin-starred restaurant, Soseoul Hannam, where we ate nine courses including sea urchin with beef jerky, cockles with abalone, flounder with mugwort, snow crab with pine nuts, conger with tomato and, to finish, more mugwort, but this time with red bean and strawberry. Every course was beautifully and lovingly crafted and presented.
If you were an entrepreneur looking for new ideas to launch in the UK, you would not have to look very far. It’s an innovative and creative nation with its eyes firmly focused on the future and not the past. There is so much to see, drink and eat here. Just be prepared for the weather!
Ann Elliott (she/her) is a portfolio non-executive director and board advisor