For such a populist subject, Reform leader and pint-lover Nigel Farage had been strangely quiet. A month after writing that line about the government’s U-turn on business rates support for the pub sector, Farage entered the fray, replete with pint and five-point plan in hand to save the British pub – tellingly, it was his first major economic announcement in a while. There was a vacuum created by the government’s poor handling of the issue, and Farage wasn’t going to pass up the opportunity to step into it for long.

Pubs have become a symbolic battleground in UK politics – a way for parties to talk about tax, community, cost‑of‑living and national identity through a single, emotionally-resonant institution. Farage’s recent activity around pubs represents a policy‑driven attempt to position himself and Reform UK as champions of the struggling hospitality sector – his policies might as well have come wrapped in a bow. With parts of the industry on its knees after too many years defined by sky-high taxes and low cheer, he knows what some honeyed words can achieve. Whether these words stand up to scrutiny and can be delivered is by the by.

 

And guess what? Reform’s policies don’t hold up. Farage’s proposals are, on paper, straightforward: cutting VAT to 10% for the hospitality sector, skimming 10% off beer duty, scrapping the rise in employers’ national insurance and gradually ending business rates for pubs. He reckons this could eventually take a pound off every pint. Music to publicans’ ears. Reform claims this package of tax cuts will cost around £3bn, which it says will be paid for by reinstating the two-child benefit cap. This is a sharp U-turn from the party’s previous stance of boosting welfare spending by scrapping the cap, as Labour has done, but sounds like it should add up.

Except that it doesn’t. As The Times pointed out last week, Reform’s claims that cutting VAT for the hospitality sector will cost £1.9bn is a mere £9bn off, with the reality being closer to £11bn by HM Revenue & Customs’ own estimates. Reform says ending business rates for pubs will cost £580m. It is closer to £650m, according to the Treasury’s figures for the impending rates revaluation. All told, there is a potential gap of around £10bn in Reform’s spending plans.

 

Farage’s tax plan has this morning (Monday, 9 February) garnered support from Sir Tim Martin, founder and chair of JD Wetherspoon, who called on the hospitality industry to back political support for tax reform – “the best offer any politician has made to the sector in its history”. As Sir Tim said: “A few days ago, the leader of the political party that is leading in the latest polls, offered the hospitality industry something many had assumed impossible – in effect, tax parity with supermarkets. There’s no question that this initiative would utterly transform the competitiveness of pubs, which have lost 50% of their beer trade to supermarkets.” It is a drum that Sir Tim has been beating long and hard, and for the most part alone, so it was little surprise to see him back Farage, with whom he has shared political ground before, on that point. Tellingly, perhaps, he has kept his counsel on the other parts of the Reform plan.

 

His point on the “leader of the political party that is leading in the latest polls” is probably the most pertinent line here, and one that will hopefully push other parties to act. Every election cycle needs a simple, emotive storyline. For hospitality, it will likely be: “The British pub is under threat – and we’re the party that will protect it.” It is a powerful narrative because it blends economics, culture, nostalgia and community. It’s politically resonant and easy to communicate. It is right up Farage’s street, and in tune with the populist political movement the world is currently experiencing. Nobody thinks they could fall for populism until it happens to them. And right now, it’s happening to the pub industry.

 

Politicians pouring pints behind the bar is a well-trodden political photo-op. Not so much for restaurants, hotels and the rest of the sector – (Rishi Sunak serving in a Wagamama for his Eat Out to Help Out initiative was a welcome departure and now feels like a one off). The only hope is that the rest of the sector can get dragged along in the wake of the issue, and get its voice heard.

 

The positive from Farage’s move is that pubs, and hopefully the whole hospitality sector, looks set to become an election issue – one that the other parties and the government will be unable to avoid and will need to react to. There is a desperate need for a party to occupy the centre – surely the natural home for the Tories – and that has always been the opportunity in UK politics. A party that can deliver both socially and economically. Deliver growth, deliver reforms, set a vision. Perhaps this says something about the so-called tyranny of government and the challenge of rule, in this day and age?

Certainly, the current government is making it look impossible. It has, in the space of 18 months, gone from a commanding majority and massive mandate for change to looking like the bad guys – the people clinging to office and on nobody’s side. While it looks rudderless, Farage is using pubs as a way to connect with voters and differentiate from Labour, especially after the government was pressured into offering a relief package for the industry. His soothing words will find a home among many frustrated, desperate operators. But the real hope is that it serves to wake up the “main” parties; for the sector desperately needs policies that stack up and provide long-term, sustainable answers.